Serie A — Italy
Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 18:45 • Allianz Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.11 (league 1.24) 3.05 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
10.4% 13.4% 67.2%
best score tips
1 - 3
8.2%
1 - 2
8.0%
0 - 3
7.4%
Score & goals probability table
AC Milan
0 1 2 3 4 5
Juventus 0 1.6% 4.7% 7.3% 7.4% 5.6% 3.4%
1 1.7% 5.3% 8.0% 8.2% 6.3% 3.8%
2 1.0% 2.9% 4.5% 4.5% 3.5% 2.1%
3 0.4% 1.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 0.8%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricJuventusAC Milan
Played55
Form73%80%
Attack60%60%
Defense67%80%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.89 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 13 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%
FT probability

2.5+

57%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Juventus AC Milan
HATHAT
Played325325
Wins67%50%60%67%100%80%
Draws33%50%40%0%0%0%
Loses0%0%0%33%0%20%

Form: Juventus: WWWDD • AC Milan: LWWWW

League goals

Metric Juventus AC Milan
HATHAT
GF total729459
GF avg2.31.01.81.32.51.8
GA total415303
GA avg1.30.51.01.00.00.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineJuventusAC Milan
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%60%100%40%
1.540%20%60%20%
2.520%20%20%0%
3.520%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricJuventusAC Milan
HATHAT
Clean sheets112123
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricJuventusAC Milan
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricJuventusAC Milan
Wins30
Draws00
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-12-10-3
Biggest losses——1-2—
Goals For4123
Goals Against3120

Model comparison

MetricJuventusAC Milan
Form48%52%
Att50%50%
Def38%63%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h62%38%
Goals67%33%
Total53.0%47.2%

Advice: Double chance : Juventus or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.86 @ 1xBet
Draw3.35 @ 188Bet
Away2.92 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.20 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.82 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.83 @ Unibet
No2.15 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Juventus = 1.11 (league 1.24), AC Milan = 3.05 (league 1.06)

AC Milan
0 1 2 3 4 5
Juventus 0 1.6% 4.7% 7.3% 7.4% 5.6% 3.4%
1 1.7% 5.3% 8.0% 8.2% 6.3% 3.8%
2 1.0% 2.9% 4.5% 4.5% 3.5% 2.1%
3 0.4% 1.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 0.8%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 10.4% · Draw 13.4% · Away win 67.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1