Serie A — Italy
Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 16:00 • Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Match Finished
2 - 1
Expected Goals
2.42 (league 1.24) 0.94 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
66.4% 17.1% 12.7%
best score tips
2 - 0
10.2%
2 - 1
9.6%
1 - 0
8.4%
Score & goals probability table
Genoa
0 1 2 3 4 5
Napoli 0 3.5% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 8.4% 7.9% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
2 10.2% 9.6% 4.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
3 8.2% 7.7% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
4 5.0% 4.7% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
5 2.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNapoliGenoa
Played55
Form80%13%
Attack63%13%
Defense69%56%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 22 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 17 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Napoli Genoa
HATHAT
Played235325
Wins100%67%80%0%0%0%
Draws0%0%0%33%50%40%
Loses0%33%20%67%50%60%

Form: Napoli: WWWWL • Genoa: DLDLL

League goals

Metric Napoli Genoa
HATHAT
GF total4610022
GF avg2.02.02.00.01.00.4
GA total235437
GA avg1.01.01.01.31.51.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNapoliGenoa
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%60%40%80%
1.560%40%0%40%
2.540%0%0%20%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNapoliGenoa
HATHAT
Clean sheets112101
Failed to score000303

Penalties

MetricNapoliGenoa
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricNapoliGenoa
Wins40
Draws01
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-21-3——
Biggest losses—2-10-32-1
Goals For3301
Goals Against2232

Model comparison

MetricNapoliGenoa
Form86%14%
Att83%17%
Def58%42%
Poisson Distribution72%28%
H2h75%25%
Goals63%38%
Total72.8%27.3%

Advice: Winner : Napoli

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.52 @ 1xBet
Draw4.30 @ 188Bet
Away9.50 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.32 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.71 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.62 @ 188Bet
No1.58 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Napoli = 2.42 (league 1.24), Genoa = 0.94 (league 1.06)

Genoa
0 1 2 3 4 5
Napoli 0 3.5% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 8.4% 7.9% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
2 10.2% 9.6% 4.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
3 8.2% 7.7% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
4 5.0% 4.7% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
5 2.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 66.4% · Draw 17.1% · Away win 12.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1