Sun, Oct 19 2025 • 18:45 • Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.32 (league 1.23) 0.28 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
21.4% 59.9% 18.8%
best score tips
0 - 0
54.8%
1 - 0
17.4%
0 - 1
15.5%
Score & goals probability table
Fiorentina
0 1 2 3 4 5
AC Milan 0 54.8% 15.5% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 17.4% 4.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 2.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAC MilanFiorentina
Played55
Form87%13%
Attack100%60%
Defense80%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.63 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)1 | 0.27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

49%
FT probability

2.5+

35%
FT probability

3.5+

25%
FT probability

BTTS

55%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric AC Milan Fiorentina
HATHAT
Played336336
Wins67%67%67%0%0%0%
Draws0%33%17%0%100%50%
Loses33%0%17%100%0%50%

Form: AC Milan: LWWWWD • Fiorentina: DDLLDL

League goals

Metric AC Milan Fiorentina
HATHAT
GF total459314
GF avg1.31.71.51.00.30.7
GA total303718
GA avg1.00.00.52.30.31.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAC MilanFiorentina
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%33%67%67%
1.550%17%0%50%
2.517%0%0%17%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAC MilanFiorentina
HATHAT
Clean sheets134022
Failed to score011022

Penalties

MetricAC MilanFiorentina
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricAC MilanFiorentina
Wins40
Draws02
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-3
Biggest losses1-21-3
Goals For2311
Goals Against2031

Model comparison

MetricAC MilanFiorentina
Form87%13%
Att73%27%
Def88%13%
Poisson Distribution53%47%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total66.8%33.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : AC Milan or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.77 @ 1xBet
Draw3.90 @ William Hill
Away5.70 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.15 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.85 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.05 @ 188Bet
No1.86 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): AC Milan = 0.32 (league 1.23), Fiorentina = 0.28 (league 1.06)

Fiorentina
0 1 2 3 4 5
AC Milan 0 54.8% 15.5% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 17.4% 4.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 2.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 21.4% · Draw 59.9% · Away win 18.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1