Serie A — Italy
Tue, Oct 28 2025 • 19:45 • Gewiss Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.97 (league 1.24) 1.26 (league 1.08)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
28.5% 28.5% 42.7%
best score tips
0 - 1
13.6%
1 - 1
13.1%
0 - 0
10.8%
Score & goals probability table
AC Milan
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atalanta 0 10.8% 13.6% 8.5% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3%
1 10.5% 13.1% 8.3% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3%
2 5.1% 6.4% 4.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 1.6% 2.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAtalantaAC Milan
Played55
Form47%73%
Attack46%69%
Defense77%69%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.29 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

62%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

60%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Atalanta AC Milan
HATHAT
Played448538
Wins25%25%25%60%67%63%
Draws75%75%75%20%33%25%
Loses0%0%0%20%0%13%

Form: Atalanta: DDWWDDDD • AC Milan: LWWWWDWD

League goals

Metric Atalanta AC Milan
HATHAT
GF total66128513
GF avg1.51.51.51.61.71.6
GA total336606
GA avg0.80.80.81.20.00.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAtalantaAC Milan
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.588%75%88%50%
1.525%0%63%25%
2.525%0%13%0%
3.513%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAtalantaAC Milan
HATHAT
Clean sheets112134
Failed to score101011

Penalties

MetricAtalantaAC Milan
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricAtalantaAC Milan
Wins24
Draws21
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-10-32-10-3
Biggest losses——1-2—
Goals For4323
Goals Against1120

Model comparison

MetricAtalantaAC Milan
Form39%61%
Att40%60%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h93%7%
Goals64%36%
Total58.6%41.4%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or AC Milan and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.79 @ 1xBet
Draw3.40 @ Dafabet
Away2.80 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.04 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.91 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.75 @ William Hill
No2.21 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Atalanta = 0.97 (league 1.24), AC Milan = 1.26 (league 1.08)

AC Milan
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atalanta 0 10.8% 13.6% 8.5% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3%
1 10.5% 13.1% 8.3% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3%
2 5.1% 6.4% 4.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 1.6% 2.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 28.5% · Draw 28.5% · Away win 42.7%

Vtot 13 , Vtod1