Serie A — Italy
Sun, Nov 30 2025 • 17:00 • Gewiss Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.27 (league 1.23) 0.74 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.7% 29.3% 21.7%
best score tips
1 - 0
17.0%
0 - 0
13.4%
1 - 1
12.6%
Score & goals probability table
Fiorentina
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atalanta 0 13.4% 9.9% 3.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
1 17.0% 12.6% 4.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
2 10.8% 8.0% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 4.6% 3.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAtalantaFiorentina
Played55
Form13%20%
Attack27%45%
Defense18%18%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.89 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

66%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Atalanta Fiorentina
HATHAT
Played66126612
Wins17%17%17%0%0%0%
Draws67%50%58%33%67%50%
Loses17%33%25%67%33%50%

Form: Atalanta: DDWWDDDDDLLL • Fiorentina: DDLLDLLDLLDD

League goals

Metric Atalanta Fiorentina
HATHAT
GF total77146410
GF avg1.21.21.21.00.70.8
GA total771411819
GA avg1.21.21.21.81.31.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAtalantaFiorentina
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%83%67%83%
1.517%17%17%58%
2.517%17%0%17%
3.58%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAtalantaFiorentina
HATHAT
Clean sheets112022
Failed to score213134

Penalties

MetricAtalantaFiorentina
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total03

Streaks

MetricAtalantaFiorentina
Wins20
Draws52
Losses02

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-10-3——
Biggest losses0-33-11-33-0
Goals For4322
Goals Against3333

Model comparison

MetricAtalantaFiorentina
Form40%60%
Att38%63%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution64%36%
H2h40%60%
Goals53%47%
Total47.5%52.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Fiorentina

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.70 @ 1xBet
Draw4.11 @ 1xBet
Away5.70 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.92 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.02 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.89 @ Pinnacle
No1.98 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Atalanta = 1.27 (league 1.23), Fiorentina = 0.74 (league 1.13)

Fiorentina
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atalanta 0 13.4% 9.9% 3.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
1 17.0% 12.6% 4.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
2 10.8% 8.0% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 4.6% 3.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.7% · Draw 29.3% · Away win 21.7%

vtt 36 , vtd1