Serie A — Italy
Sat, Dec 6 2025 • 14:00 • MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
Not Started
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Expected Goals
1.36 (league 1.24) 0.72 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
51.9% 28.1% 19.7%
best score tips
1 - 0
17.0%
0 - 0
12.5%
1 - 1
12.2%
Score & goals probability table
Fiorentina
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sassuolo 0 12.5% 9.0% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
1 17.0% 12.2% 4.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 11.6% 8.3% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 5.2% 3.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSassuoloFiorentina
Played55
Form47%13%
Attack67%25%
Defense42%25%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.63 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.49 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

66%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sassuolo Fiorentina
HATHAT
Played67136713
Wins33%43%38%0%0%0%
Draws17%14%15%33%57%46%
Loses50%43%46%67%43%54%

Form: Sassuolo: LLWLWWDLWLWDL • Fiorentina: DDLLDLLDLLDDL

League goals

Metric Sassuolo Fiorentina
HATHAT
GF total79166410
GF avg1.21.31.21.00.60.8
GA total8816111021
GA avg1.31.11.21.81.41.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSassuoloFiorentina
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.569%69%62%85%
1.538%46%15%62%
2.515%8%0%15%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSassuoloFiorentina
HATHAT
Clean sheets134022
Failed to score224145

Penalties

MetricSassuoloFiorentina
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total23

Streaks

MetricSassuoloFiorentina
Wins20
Draws12
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-3——
Biggest losses0-22-01-33-0
Goals For3322
Goals Against2333

Model comparison

MetricSassuoloFiorentina
Form78%22%
Att73%27%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution66%34%
H2h40%60%
Goals35%65%
Total58.0%42.0%

Advice: Double chance : Sassuolo or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.92 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.36 @ 1xBet
Away2.68 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.16 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.81 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.84 @ 188Bet
No2.02 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sassuolo = 1.36 (league 1.24), Fiorentina = 0.72 (league 1.09)

Fiorentina
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sassuolo 0 12.5% 9.0% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
1 17.0% 12.2% 4.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 11.6% 8.3% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 5.2% 3.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 51.9% · Draw 28.1% · Away win 19.7%

Vtot 3 , Vtod3