Serie A — Italy
Sun, Dec 21 2025 • 19:45 • Luigi Ferraris
Match Finished
0 - 1
Expected Goals
0.68 (league 1.23) 1.36 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
18.8% 28.1% 52.8%
best score tips
0 - 1
17.6%
0 - 0
13.0%
1 - 1
12.0%
Score & goals probability table
Atalanta
0 1 2 3 4 5
Genoa 0 13.0% 17.6% 12.0% 5.4% 1.8% 0.5%
1 8.9% 12.0% 8.2% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3%
2 3.0% 4.1% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
3 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGenoaAtalanta
Played55
Form53%40%
Attack100%75%
Defense0%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 26 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.810 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

69%
FT probability

2.5+

48%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Genoa Atalanta
HATHAT
Played87158715
Wins13%29%20%38%14%27%
Draws38%29%33%50%43%47%
Loses50%43%47%13%43%27%

Form: Genoa: DLDLLLDLLWDDWWL • Atalanta: DDWWDDDDDLLLWLW

League goals

Metric Genoa Atalanta
HATHAT
GF total5111611819
GF avg0.61.61.11.41.11.3
GA total11122381018
GA avg1.41.71.51.01.41.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGenoaAtalanta
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%87%80%80%
1.533%53%27%20%
2.57%13%13%20%
3.50%0%7%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGenoaAtalanta
HATHAT
Clean sheets202213
Failed to score505213

Penalties

MetricGenoaAtalanta
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricGenoaAtalanta
Wins22
Draws25
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-24-10-3
Biggest losses0-32-10-33-1
Goals For2343
Goals Against3333

Model comparison

MetricGenoaAtalanta
Form57%43%
Att63%38%
Def53%47%
Poisson Distribution33%67%
H2h0%100%
Goals18%82%
Total44.8%55.4%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Atalanta

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.86 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.30 @ 1xBet
Away2.21 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.39 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.68 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.04 @ 188Bet
No1.84 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Genoa = 0.68 (league 1.23), Atalanta = 1.36 (league 1.13)

Atalanta
0 1 2 3 4 5
Genoa 0 13.0% 17.6% 12.0% 5.4% 1.8% 0.5%
1 8.9% 12.0% 8.2% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3%
2 3.0% 4.1% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
3 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 18.8% · Draw 28.1% · Away win 52.8%

vtt 34 , vtd1