Serie A — Italy
Sat, Jan 3 2026 • 19:45 • New Balance Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.78 (league 1.23) 0.97 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
28.0% 33.2% 38.8%
best score tips
0 - 0
17.3%
0 - 1
16.9%
1 - 0
13.5%
Score & goals probability table
AS Roma
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atalanta 0 17.3% 16.9% 8.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1%
1 13.5% 13.1% 6.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
2 5.2% 5.1% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
3 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAtalantaAS Roma
Played55
Form60%40%
Attack67%56%
Defense44%44%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

59%
FT probability

2.5+

41%
FT probability

3.5+

29%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Atalanta AS Roma
HATHAT
Played98179817
Wins33%25%29%67%63%65%
Draws44%38%41%0%0%0%
Loses22%38%29%33%38%35%

Form: Atalanta: DDWWDDDDDLLLWLWWL • AS Roma: WWLWWWLWWLWWLLWLW

League goals

Metric Atalanta AS Roma
HATHAT
GF total1192011920
GF avg1.21.11.21.21.11.2
GA total910195611
GA avg1.01.31.10.60.80.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAtalantaAS Roma
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.576%76%71%59%
1.524%18%35%6%
2.512%18%12%0%
3.56%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAtalantaAS Roma
HATHAT
Clean sheets224437
Failed to score314325

Penalties

MetricAtalantaAS Roma
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricAtalantaAS Roma
Wins23
Draws50
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-10-33-11-3
Biggest losses0-33-10-12-1
Goals For4333
Goals Against3312

Model comparison

MetricAtalantaAS Roma
Form60%40%
Att55%45%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution41%59%
H2h93%7%
Goals71%29%
Total61.7%38.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Atalanta or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.43 @ 1xBet
Draw3.13 @ 1xBet
Away3.55 @ Superbet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.35 @ SBO
Under 2.51.79 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.95 @ 188Bet
No1.92 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Atalanta = 0.78 (league 1.23), AS Roma = 0.97 (league 1.13)

AS Roma
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atalanta 0 17.3% 16.9% 8.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1%
1 13.5% 13.1% 6.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
2 5.2% 5.1% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
3 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 28.0% · Draw 33.2% · Away win 38.8%

vtt 7 , vtd1