Serie A — Italy
Fri, Jan 2 2026 • 19:45 • Unipol Domus
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.75 (league 1.21) 2.27 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
10.8% 17.5% 68.9%
best score tips
0 - 2
12.6%
0 - 1
11.1%
0 - 3
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
AC Milan
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cagliari 0 4.9% 11.1% 12.6% 9.5% 5.4% 2.4%
1 3.7% 8.3% 9.4% 7.1% 4.0% 1.8%
2 1.4% 3.1% 3.5% 2.7% 1.5% 0.7%
3 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCagliariAC Milan
Played55
Form47%87%
Attack58%83%
Defense42%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.410 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

73%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Cagliari AC Milan
HATHAT
Played89179716
Wins25%22%24%67%57%63%
Draws38%33%35%22%43%31%
Loses38%44%41%11%0%6%

Form: Cagliari: DLWWLDLDLLDDLWLDW • AC Milan: LWWWWDWDDWDWWWDW

League goals

Metric Cagliari AC Milan
HATHAT
GF total10919151227
GF avg1.31.01.11.71.71.7
GA total1212248513
GA avg1.51.31.40.90.70.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCagliariAC Milan
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%82%94%50%
1.535%53%56%31%
2.56%6%19%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCagliariAC Milan
HATHAT
Clean sheets213448
Failed to score235011

Penalties

MetricCagliariAC Milan
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total13

Streaks

MetricCagliariAC Milan
Wins24
Draws22
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-23-00-3
Biggest losses0-22-01-2—
Goals For3233
Goals Against3222

Model comparison

MetricCagliariAC Milan
Form35%65%
Att41%59%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution23%77%
H2h15%85%
Goals30%70%
Total30.0%70.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or AC Milan

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home6.25 @ Unibet
Draw3.94 @ 1xBet
Away1.68 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.23 @ SBO
Under 2.51.79 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.19 @ Pinnacle
No1.73 @ 10Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Cagliari = 0.75 (league 1.21), AC Milan = 2.27 (league 1.12)

AC Milan
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cagliari 0 4.9% 11.1% 12.6% 9.5% 5.4% 2.4%
1 3.7% 8.3% 9.4% 7.1% 4.0% 1.8%
2 1.4% 3.1% 3.5% 2.7% 1.5% 0.7%
3 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 10.8% · Draw 17.5% · Away win 68.9%

vtt 26 , vtd1