Serie A — Italy
Thu, Jan 8 2026 • 19:45 • Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Match Finished
1 - 1
Expected Goals
2.62 (league 1.23) 1.19 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
63.0% 16.7% 15.0%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.0%
3 - 1
7.9%
2 - 0
7.6%
Score & goals probability table
Genoa
0 1 2 3 4 5
AC Milan 0 2.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
1 5.8% 6.9% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
2 7.6% 9.0% 5.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2%
3 6.6% 7.9% 4.7% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%
4 4.4% 5.2% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
5 2.3% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAC MilanGenoa
Played55
Form87%27%
Attack67%33%
Defense73%47%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.88 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

79%
FT probability

2.5+

55%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric AC Milan Genoa
HATHAT
Played981710818
Wins67%63%65%10%25%17%
Draws22%38%29%40%25%33%
Loses11%0%6%50%50%50%

Form: AC Milan: LWWWWDWDDWDWWWDWW • Genoa: DLDLLLDLLWDDWWLLLD

League goals

Metric AC Milan Genoa
HATHAT
GF total15132861218
GF avg1.71.61.60.61.51.0
GA total8513131528
GA avg0.90.60.81.31.91.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAC MilanGenoa
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.594%47%67%89%
1.553%29%28%50%
2.518%0%6%17%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAC MilanGenoa
HATHAT
Clean sheets459202
Failed to score011606

Penalties

MetricAC MilanGenoa
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total31

Streaks

MetricAC MilanGenoa
Wins42
Draws22
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-32-11-2
Biggest losses1-2—0-33-1
Goals For3323
Goals Against2233

Model comparison

MetricAC MilanGenoa
Form76%24%
Att67%33%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution69%31%
H2h85%15%
Goals67%33%
Total71.8%28.2%

Advice: Double chance : AC Milan or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.53 @ 1xBet
Draw4.30 @ Superbet
Away8.60 @ Superbet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.27 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.83 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.45 @ Pinnacle
No1.60 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): AC Milan = 2.62 (league 1.23), Genoa = 1.19 (league 1.13)

Genoa
0 1 2 3 4 5
AC Milan 0 2.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
1 5.8% 6.9% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
2 7.6% 9.0% 5.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2%
3 6.6% 7.9% 4.7% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%
4 4.4% 5.2% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
5 2.3% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 63.0% · Draw 16.7% · Away win 15.0%

vtt 12 , vtd1