Serie A — Italy
Mon, Apr 6 2026 • 18:45 • Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Not Started
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Expected Goals
1.02 (league 1.23) 1.35 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
28.3% 27.3% 44.1%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.9%
0 - 1
12.6%
1 - 0
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
AC Milan
0 1 2 3 4 5
Napoli 0 9.3% 12.6% 8.5% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4%
1 9.5% 12.9% 8.7% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4%
2 4.9% 6.6% 4.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
3 1.7% 2.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNapoliAC Milan
Played55
Form80%60%
Attack73%55%
Defense55%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.66 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Napoli AC Milan
HATHAT
Played141630151530
Wins71%56%63%60%60%60%
Draws29%6%17%27%33%30%
Loses0%38%20%13%7%10%

Form: Napoli: WWWWLWLWWDLWWWLWWDDDWLWWDLWWWW • AC Milan: LWWWWDWDDWDWWWDWWDDWWDWWDLWWLW

League goals

Metric Napoli AC Milan
HATHAT
GF total252146222547
GF avg1.81.31.51.51.71.6
GA total131730131023
GA avg0.91.11.00.90.70.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNapoliAC Milan
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%67%90%57%
1.557%30%47%20%
2.517%3%20%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNapoliAC Milan
HATHAT
Clean sheets46106713
Failed to score246123

Penalties

MetricNapoliAC Milan
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total45

Streaks

MetricNapoliAC Milan
Wins44
Draws32
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-33-00-3
Biggest losses—3-01-21-0
Goals For3333
Goals Against2322

Model comparison

MetricNapoliAC Milan
Form57%43%
Att57%43%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution40%60%
H2h60%40%
Goals64%36%
Total53.7%46.3%

Advice: Double chance : Napoli or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.60 @ 1xBet
Draw3.11 @ 1xBet
Away3.25 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.37 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.69 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.95 @ Bet365
No1.93 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Napoli = 1.02 (league 1.23), AC Milan = 1.35 (league 1.13)

AC Milan
0 1 2 3 4 5
Napoli 0 9.3% 12.6% 8.5% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4%
1 9.5% 12.9% 8.7% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4%
2 4.9% 6.6% 4.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
3 1.7% 2.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 28.3% · Draw 27.3% · Away win 44.1%

vtt 1 , vtd1