Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 14:00 • Etihad Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.99 (league 1.50) 0.79 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
73.0% 11.8% 6.8%
best score tips
2 - 0
10.2%
3 - 0
10.2%
2 - 1
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
Burnley
0 1 2 3 4 5
Manchester City 0 2.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 6.8% 5.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 10.2% 8.1% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
3 10.2% 8.0% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 7.6% 6.0% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
5 4.5% 3.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricManchester CityBurnley
Played55
Form47%27%
Attack75%42%
Defense58%33%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.85 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 18 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

85%
FT probability

2.5+

60%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Manchester City Burnley
HATHAT
Played235325
Wins50%33%40%33%0%20%
Draws0%33%20%33%0%20%
Loses50%33%40%33%100%60%

Form: Manchester City: WLLWD • Burnley: LWLLD

League goals

Metric Manchester City Burnley
HATHAT
GF total369325
GF avg1.52.01.81.01.01.0
GA total235268
GA avg1.01.01.00.73.01.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineManchester CityBurnley
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%60%60%80%
1.540%40%40%40%
2.540%0%0%40%
3.520%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricManchester CityBurnley
HATHAT
Clean sheets112101
Failed to score101112

Penalties

MetricManchester CityBurnley
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricManchester CityBurnley
Wins11
Draws00
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-42-0
Biggest losses0-22-10-13-0
Goals For3422
Goals Against2213

Model comparison

MetricManchester CityBurnley
Form64%36%
Att64%36%
Def62%38%
Poisson Distribution78%22%
H2h100%0%
Goals94%6%
Total72.4%27.6%

Advice: Winner : Manchester City

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.24 @ 1xBet
Draw7.50 @ Bet365
Away18.00 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.50 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.75 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.20 @ Unibet
No1.75 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Manchester City = 2.99 (league 1.50), Burnley = 0.79 (league 1.26)

Burnley
0 1 2 3 4 5
Manchester City 0 2.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 6.8% 5.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 10.2% 8.1% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
3 10.2% 8.0% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 7.6% 6.0% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
5 4.5% 3.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 73.0% · Draw 11.8% · Away win 6.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1