Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 15:30 • St. James' Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.50 (league 1.50) 0.60 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
24.8% 44.2% 31.1%
best score tips
0 - 0
33.4%
0 - 1
19.9%
1 - 0
16.7%
Score & goals probability table
Arsenal
0 1 2 3 4 5
Newcastle 0 33.4% 19.9% 5.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
1 16.7% 10.0% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 4.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNewcastleArsenal
Played55
Form40%67%
Attack18%59%
Defense82%88%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.610 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.62 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

54%
FT probability

2.5+

38%
FT probability

3.5+

27%
FT probability

BTTS

51%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Newcastle Arsenal
HATHAT
Played235325
Wins50%0%20%67%50%60%
Draws0%100%60%33%0%20%
Loses50%0%20%0%50%20%

Form: Newcastle: DLDWD • Arsenal: WWLWD

League goals

Metric Newcastle Arsenal
HATHAT
GF total3039110
GF avg1.50.00.63.00.52.0
GA total303112
GA avg1.50.00.60.30.50.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNewcastleArsenal
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.540%20%80%40%
1.520%20%40%0%
2.50%20%40%0%
3.50%0%20%0%
4.50%0%20%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNewcastleArsenal
HATHAT
Clean sheets134213
Failed to score033011

Penalties

MetricNewcastleArsenal
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricNewcastleArsenal
Wins12
Draws10
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-05-00-1
Biggest losses2-31-0
Goals For2051
Goals Against3011

Model comparison

MetricNewcastleArsenal
Form38%63%
Att23%77%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution43%57%
H2h60%40%
Goals64%36%
Total44.7%55.5%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Arsenal and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.76 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.46 @ 1xBet
Away2.17 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.23 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.84 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.95 @ Bet365
No1.92 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Newcastle = 0.50 (league 1.50), Arsenal = 0.60 (league 1.26)

Arsenal
0 1 2 3 4 5
Newcastle 0 33.4% 19.9% 5.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
1 16.7% 10.0% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 4.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 24.8% · Draw 44.2% · Away win 31.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1