Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 13:00 • Villa Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.36 (league 1.56) 1.05 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
63.2% 18.2% 15.2%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.7%
2 - 0
9.2%
1 - 1
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
Burnley
0 1 2 3 4 5
Aston Villa 0 3.3% 3.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
1 7.8% 8.2% 4.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
2 9.2% 9.7% 5.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 7.2% 7.6% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 4.3% 4.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
5 2.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAston VillaBurnley
Played55
Form33%27%
Attack29%43%
Defense57%29%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.86 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.210 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

85%
FT probability

2.5+

60%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Aston Villa Burnley
HATHAT
Played336336
Wins33%0%17%33%0%17%
Draws33%67%50%33%0%17%
Loses33%33%33%33%100%67%

Form: Aston Villa: DLLDDW • Burnley: LWLLDL

League goals

Metric Aston Villa Burnley
HATHAT
GF total314336
GF avg1.00.30.71.01.01.0
GA total42621113
GA avg1.30.71.00.73.72.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAston VillaBurnley
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.533%67%67%83%
1.517%17%33%50%
2.517%17%0%50%
3.50%0%0%17%
4.50%0%0%17%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAston VillaBurnley
HATHAT
Clean sheets112101
Failed to score224112

Penalties

MetricAston VillaBurnley
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricAston VillaBurnley
Wins01
Draws21
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-1—2-0—
Biggest losses0-31-00-15-1
Goals For3122
Goals Against3115

Model comparison

MetricAston VillaBurnley
Form56%44%
Att40%60%
Def63%38%
Poisson Distribution67%33%
H2h71%29%
Goals60%40%
Total59.5%40.7%

Advice: Double chance : Aston Villa or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.68 @ 1xBet
Draw4.03 @ 1xBet
Away6.00 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.00 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.96 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.01 @ Pinnacle
No1.91 @ 888Sport
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Aston Villa = 2.36 (league 1.56), Burnley = 1.05 (league 1.24)

Burnley
0 1 2 3 4 5
Aston Villa 0 3.3% 3.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
1 7.8% 8.2% 4.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
2 9.2% 9.7% 5.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 7.2% 7.6% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 4.3% 4.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
5 2.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 63.2% · Draw 18.2% · Away win 15.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1