Sun, Oct 26 2025 • 14:00 • Villa Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.67 (league 1.55) 1.85 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
12.9% 21.6% 64.3%
best score tips
0 - 1
14.8%
0 - 2
13.7%
1 - 1
10.0%
Score & goals probability table
Manchester City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Aston Villa 0 8.0% 14.8% 13.7% 8.5% 3.9% 1.4%
1 5.4% 10.0% 9.2% 5.7% 2.6% 1.0%
2 1.8% 3.4% 3.1% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3%
3 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAston VillaManchester City
Played55
Form73%87%
Attack40%60%
Defense80%90%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.612 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.82 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

72%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Aston Villa Manchester City
HATHAT
Played448448
Wins50%25%38%75%50%63%
Draws25%50%38%0%25%13%
Loses25%25%25%25%25%25%

Form: Aston Villa: DLLDDWWW • Manchester City: WLLWDWWW

League goals

Metric Aston Villa Manchester City
HATHAT
GF total53810717
GF avg1.30.81.02.51.82.1
GA total538336
GA avg1.30.81.00.80.80.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAston VillaManchester City
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%75%88%50%
1.538%13%50%25%
2.513%13%38%0%
3.50%0%25%0%
4.50%0%13%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAston VillaManchester City
HATHAT
Clean sheets112224
Failed to score224101

Penalties

MetricAston VillaManchester City
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricAston VillaManchester City
Wins01
Draws21
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-25-10-4
Biggest losses0-31-00-22-1
Goals For3254
Goals Against3122

Model comparison

MetricAston VillaManchester City
Form46%54%
Att40%60%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution25%75%
H2h40%60%
Goals38%63%
Total37.0%63.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Manchester City

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.80 @ Unibet
Draw4.18 @ 1xBet
Away1.90 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.74 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.27 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.68 @ Pinnacle
No2.28 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Aston Villa = 0.67 (league 1.55), Manchester City = 1.85 (league 1.27)

Manchester City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Aston Villa 0 8.0% 14.8% 13.7% 8.5% 3.9% 1.4%
1 5.4% 10.0% 9.2% 5.7% 2.6% 1.0%
2 1.8% 3.4% 3.1% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3%
3 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 12.9% · Draw 21.6% · Away win 64.3%

Vtot 39 , Vtod2