Sun, Nov 9 2025 • 14:00 • Villa Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.86 (league 1.55) 1.42 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
46.8% 22.5% 29.2%
best score tips
1 - 1
9.9%
2 - 1
9.2%
1 - 2
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
Bournemouth
0 1 2 3 4 5
Aston Villa 0 3.7% 5.3% 3.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
1 7.0% 9.9% 7.1% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.5% 9.2% 6.6% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
3 4.0% 5.7% 4.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%
4 1.9% 2.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAston VillaBournemouth
Played55
Form80%53%
Attack44%61%
Defense72%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.611 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%
FT probability

2.5+

57%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Aston Villa Bournemouth
HATHAT
Played55105510
Wins60%20%40%80%20%50%
Draws20%40%30%20%40%30%
Loses20%40%30%0%40%20%

Form: Aston Villa: DLLDDWWWWL • Bournemouth: LWWWDDWDWL

League goals

Metric Aston Villa Bournemouth
HATHAT
GF total6398917
GF avg1.20.60.91.61.81.7
GA total551021214
GA avg1.01.01.00.42.41.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAston VillaBournemouth
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%70%90%60%
1.530%20%60%40%
2.510%10%20%30%
3.50%0%0%10%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAston VillaBournemouth
HATHAT
Clean sheets213314
Failed to score235101

Penalties

MetricAston VillaBournemouth
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricAston VillaBournemouth
Wins43
Draws22
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-23-10-1
Biggest losses0-32-0—4-2
Goals For3233
Goals Against3214

Model comparison

MetricAston VillaBournemouth
Form60%40%
Att42%58%
Def64%36%
Poisson Distribution53%47%
H2h85%15%
Goals71%29%
Total62.5%37.5%

Advice: Double chance : Aston Villa or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.38 @ 1xBet
Draw3.50 @ 188Bet
Away3.25 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.92 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.03 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.71 @ Superbet
No2.25 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Aston Villa = 1.86 (league 1.55), Bournemouth = 1.42 (league 1.27)

Bournemouth
0 1 2 3 4 5
Aston Villa 0 3.7% 5.3% 3.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
1 7.0% 9.9% 7.1% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.5% 9.2% 6.6% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
3 4.0% 5.7% 4.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%
4 1.9% 2.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 46.8% · Draw 22.5% · Away win 29.2%

Vtot 92 , Vtod3