Sat, Nov 22 2025 • 17:30 • St. James' Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.82 (league 1.56) 1.33 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
23.1% 28.3% 48.3%
best score tips
0 - 1
15.5%
1 - 1
12.7%
0 - 0
11.7%
Score & goals probability table
Manchester City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Newcastle 0 11.7% 15.5% 10.3% 4.5% 1.5% 0.4%
1 9.6% 12.7% 8.4% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3%
2 3.9% 5.2% 3.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
3 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNewcastleManchester City
Played55
Form40%80%
Attack47%60%
Defense40%87%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.49 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.82 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

72%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Newcastle Manchester City
HATHAT
Played56116511
Wins60%0%27%83%40%64%
Draws0%50%27%0%20%9%
Loses40%50%45%17%40%27%

Form: Newcastle: DLDWDLWLWLL • Manchester City: WLLWDWWWLWW

League goals

Metric Newcastle Manchester City
HATHAT
GF total831116723
GF avg1.60.51.02.71.42.1
GA total6814448
GA avg1.21.31.30.70.80.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNewcastleManchester City
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%55%82%55%
1.527%45%55%18%
2.50%27%45%0%
3.50%0%18%0%
4.50%0%9%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNewcastleManchester City
HATHAT
Clean sheets235325
Failed to score033112

Penalties

MetricNewcastleManchester City
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricNewcastleManchester City
Wins13
Draws11
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-0—5-10-4
Biggest losses2-33-10-22-1
Goals For2154
Goals Against3322

Model comparison

MetricNewcastleManchester City
Form33%67%
Att44%56%
Def18%82%
Poisson Distribution34%66%
H2h29%71%
Goals29%71%
Total31.2%68.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Manchester City

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.90 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.80 @ Bet365
Away2.09 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.75 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.26 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ Pinnacle
No2.39 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Newcastle = 0.82 (league 1.56), Manchester City = 1.33 (league 1.27)

Manchester City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Newcastle 0 11.7% 15.5% 10.3% 4.5% 1.5% 0.4%
1 9.6% 12.7% 8.4% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3%
2 3.9% 5.2% 3.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
3 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.1% · Draw 28.3% · Away win 48.3%

Vtot 106 , Vtod1