Wed, Dec 3 2025 • 19:30 • Amex Stadium
Not Started
Expected Goals
1.29 (league 1.55) 0.63 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
52.4% 29.2% 18.2%
best score tips
1 - 0
18.9%
0 - 0
14.6%
2 - 0
12.2%
Score & goals probability table
Aston Villa
0 1 2 3 4 5
Brighton 0 14.6% 9.2% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 18.9% 11.9% 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
2 12.2% 7.7% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 5.3% 3.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBrightonAston Villa
Played55
Form67%80%
Attack90%80%
Defense50%70%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 13 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

69%
FT probability

2.5+

48%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Brighton Aston Villa
HATHAT
Played67137613
Wins67%29%46%71%33%54%
Draws33%29%31%14%33%23%
Loses0%43%23%14%33%23%

Form: Brighton: DLWLDWDWLWDWW • Aston Villa: DLLDDWWWWLWWW

League goals

Metric Brighton Aston Villa
HATHAT
GF total1292111516
GF avg2.01.31.61.60.81.2
GA total610165611
GA avg1.01.41.20.71.00.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBrightonAston Villa
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.585%77%62%62%
1.562%31%38%15%
2.515%8%15%8%
3.50%8%8%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBrightonAston Villa
HATHAT
Clean sheets123415
Failed to score022235

Penalties

MetricBrightonAston Villa
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricBrightonAston Villa
Wins14
Draws12
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-34-01-2
Biggest losses—4-20-32-0
Goals For3342
Goals Against2432

Model comparison

MetricBrightonAston Villa
Form45%55%
Att53%47%
Def38%63%
Poisson Distribution64%36%
H2h29%71%
Goals28%72%
Total42.8%57.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Aston Villa

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.26 @ 1xBet
Draw3.59 @ Pinnacle
Away3.40 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.92 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.02 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.71 @ Pinnacle
No2.20 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Brighton = 1.29 (league 1.55), Aston Villa = 0.63 (league 1.27)

Aston Villa
0 1 2 3 4 5
Brighton 0 14.6% 9.2% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 18.9% 11.9% 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
2 12.2% 7.7% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 5.3% 3.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 52.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away win 18.2%

Vtot 7 , Vtod3