Tue, Dec 30 2025 • 19:30 • Turf Moor
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.63 (league 1.53) 0.68 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
28.4% 39.9% 31.7%
best score tips
0 - 0
27.1%
0 - 1
18.4%
1 - 0
17.0%
Score & goals probability table
Newcastle
0 1 2 3 4 5
Burnley 0 27.1% 18.4% 6.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0%
1 17.0% 11.5% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
2 5.3% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBurnleyNewcastle
Played55
Form13%33%
Attack40%60%
Defense30%30%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.86 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

68%
FT probability

2.5+

48%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

61%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Burnley Newcastle
HATHAT
Played99189918
Wins22%11%17%56%11%33%
Draws22%11%17%22%33%28%
Loses56%78%67%22%56%39%

Form: Burnley: LWLLDLLWWLLLLLLLDD • Newcastle: DLDWDLWLWLLWWDWLDL

League goals

Metric Burnley Newcastle
HATHAT
GF total7121916723
GF avg0.81.31.11.80.81.3
GA total102434121123
GA avg1.12.71.91.31.21.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBurnleyNewcastle
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%83%72%72%
1.533%61%44%39%
2.56%33%6%17%
3.50%6%6%0%
4.50%6%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBurnleyNewcastle
HATHAT
Clean sheets303235
Failed to score516055

Penalties

MetricBurnleyNewcastle
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total23

Streaks

MetricBurnleyNewcastle
Wins22
Draws11
Losses72

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-02-32-01-4
Biggest losses0-25-12-33-1
Goals For2324
Goals Against3533

Model comparison

MetricBurnleyNewcastle
Form29%71%
Att40%60%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution46%54%
H2h0%100%
Goals21%79%
Total37.2%62.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Newcastle

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home6.10 @ 188Bet
Draw4.37 @ 1xBet
Away1.62 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.88 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.09 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.94 @ Pinnacle
No1.96 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Burnley = 0.63 (league 1.53), Newcastle = 0.68 (league 1.29)

Newcastle
0 1 2 3 4 5
Burnley 0 27.1% 18.4% 6.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0%
1 17.0% 11.5% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
2 5.3% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 28.4% · Draw 39.9% · Away win 31.7%

Vtot 68 , Vtod9