Wed, Jan 7 2026 • 20:15 • St. James' Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.36 (league 1.53) 0.75 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
69.9% 16.6% 10.1%
best score tips
2 - 0
12.4%
1 - 0
10.5%
3 - 0
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
Leeds
0 1 2 3 4 5
Newcastle 0 4.4% 3.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 10.5% 7.9% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 12.4% 9.3% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 9.7% 7.3% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
4 5.7% 4.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 2.7% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNewcastleLeeds
Played55
Form47%47%
Attack54%54%
Defense62%69%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%
FT probability

2.5+

57%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Newcastle Leeds
HATHAT
Played101020101020
Wins60%20%40%40%10%25%
Draws20%30%25%40%30%35%
Loses20%50%35%20%60%40%

Form: Newcastle: DLDWDLWLWLLWWDWLDLWW • Leeds: WLDLWDLLWLLLLWDDWDDD

League goals

Metric Newcastle Leeds
HATHAT
GF total18102818826
GF avg1.81.01.41.80.81.3
GA total121224132033
GA avg1.21.21.21.32.01.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNewcastleLeeds
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%70%70%85%
1.550%35%35%45%
2.510%15%20%25%
3.55%0%5%5%
4.50%0%0%5%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNewcastleLeeds
HATHAT
Clean sheets336213
Failed to score055156

Penalties

MetricNewcastleLeeds
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total32

Streaks

MetricNewcastleLeeds
Wins21
Draws12
Losses24

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-44-11-3
Biggest losses2-33-11-25-0
Goals For2443
Goals Against3335

Model comparison

MetricNewcastleLeeds
Form50%50%
Att50%50%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution74%26%
H2h64%36%
Goals57%43%
Total56.5%43.5%

Advice: Double chance : Newcastle or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.69 @ 1xBet
Draw4.06 @ 1xBet
Away5.70 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.88 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.07 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.84 @ Pinnacle
No2.04 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Newcastle = 2.36 (league 1.53), Leeds = 0.75 (league 1.27)

Leeds
0 1 2 3 4 5
Newcastle 0 4.4% 3.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 10.5% 7.9% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 12.4% 9.3% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 9.7% 7.3% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
4 5.7% 4.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 2.7% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 69.9% · Draw 16.6% · Away win 10.1%

vtt 4 , vtd1