Wed, Mar 4 2026 • 19:30 • Villa Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.10 (league 1.53) 1.17 (league 1.30)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
33.9% 28.6% 37.2%
best score tips
1 - 1
13.3%
0 - 1
12.1%
1 - 0
11.4%
Score & goals probability table
Chelsea
0 1 2 3 4 5
Aston Villa 0 10.4% 12.1% 7.1% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2%
1 11.4% 13.3% 7.8% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2%
2 6.3% 7.3% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.3% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAston VillaChelsea
Played55
Form33%53%
Attack33%100%
Defense44%11%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.610 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 18 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

77%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Aston Villa Chelsea
HATHAT
Played141428141428
Wins64%43%54%43%43%43%
Draws14%29%21%36%29%32%
Loses21%29%25%21%29%25%

Form: Aston Villa: DLLDDWWWWLWWWWWWWWLWDLWLDWDL • Chelsea: DWWDLLWWLWWWDLDWDLDDLWWWWDDL

League goals

Metric Aston Villa Chelsea
HATHAT
GF total201838232649
GF avg1.41.31.41.61.91.8
GA total111930161733
GA avg0.81.41.11.11.21.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAston VillaChelsea
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.568%71%93%68%
1.543%21%54%43%
2.518%11%21%7%
3.57%4%4%0%
4.50%0%4%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAston VillaChelsea
HATHAT
Clean sheets538549
Failed to score459112

Penalties

MetricAston VillaChelsea
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%7 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total07

Streaks

MetricAston VillaChelsea
Wins84
Draws22
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-23-01-5
Biggest losses0-34-11-33-1
Goals For4435
Goals Against3433

Model comparison

MetricAston VillaChelsea
Form38%62%
Att23%77%
Def62%38%
Poisson Distribution49%51%
H2h50%50%
Goals41%59%
Total43.8%56.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Chelsea

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.85 @ 1xBet
Draw3.60 @ 188Bet
Away2.61 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.85 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.15 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ William Hill
No2.42 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Aston Villa = 1.10 (league 1.53), Chelsea = 1.17 (league 1.30)

Chelsea
0 1 2 3 4 5
Aston Villa 0 10.4% 12.1% 7.1% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2%
1 11.4% 13.3% 7.8% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2%
2 6.3% 7.3% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.3% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 33.9% · Draw 28.6% · Away win 37.2%

vtt 1 , vtd1