Wed, Mar 4 2026 • 20:15 • St. James' Park
Not Started
Expected Goals
1.98 (league 1.54) 1.98 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
38.0% 20.8% 38.1%
best score tips
1 - 1
7.5%
1 - 2
7.4%
2 - 1
7.4%
Score & goals probability table
Manchester United
0 1 2 3 4 5
Newcastle 0 1.9% 3.8% 3.7% 2.5% 1.2% 0.5%
1 3.8% 7.5% 7.4% 4.9% 2.4% 1.0%
2 3.7% 7.4% 7.3% 4.8% 2.4% 0.9%
3 2.5% 4.9% 4.8% 3.2% 1.6% 0.6%
4 1.2% 2.4% 2.4% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3%
5 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNewcastleManchester United
Played55
Form20%87%
Attack62%69%
Defense0%69%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.69 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)13 | 2.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

91%
FT probability

2.5+

64%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

81%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Newcastle Manchester United
HATHAT
Played141428141428
Wins50%21%36%64%36%50%
Draws14%29%21%21%43%32%
Loses36%50%43%14%21%18%

Form: Newcastle: DLDWDLWLWLLWWDWLDLWWWDLLLWLL • Manchester United: LDWLWLWWWDDLWDWDLWDDDWWWWDWW

League goals

Metric Newcastle Manchester United
HATHAT
GF total261440272350
GF avg1.91.01.41.91.61.8
GA total231942162238
GA avg1.61.41.51.11.61.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNewcastleManchester United
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%75%89%82%
1.550%46%57%39%
2.511%25%21%11%
3.57%4%11%4%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNewcastleManchester United
HATHAT
Clean sheets347415
Failed to score167213

Penalties

MetricNewcastleManchester United
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total53

Streaks

MetricNewcastleManchester United
Wins34
Draws13
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-44-21-4
Biggest losses0-24-10-13-0
Goals For4444
Goals Against3443

Model comparison

MetricNewcastleManchester United
Form19%81%
Att47%53%
Def24%76%
Poisson Distribution47%53%
H2h60%40%
Goals64%36%
Total43.5%56.5%

Advice: Double chance : Newcastle or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.70 @ Bet365
Draw3.90 @ 188Bet
Away2.61 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.55 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.57 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.46 @ 188Bet
No2.82 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Newcastle = 1.98 (league 1.54), Manchester United = 1.98 (league 1.29)

Manchester United
0 1 2 3 4 5
Newcastle 0 1.9% 3.8% 3.7% 2.5% 1.2% 0.5%
1 3.8% 7.5% 7.4% 4.9% 2.4% 1.0%
2 3.7% 7.4% 7.3% 4.8% 2.4% 0.9%
3 2.5% 4.9% 4.8% 3.2% 1.6% 0.6%
4 1.2% 2.4% 2.4% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3%
5 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 38.0% · Draw 20.8% · Away win 38.1%

vtt 1 , vtd1