Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:30 •
Craven Cottage
Expected Goals
1.59 (league 1.50)
1.24 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 45.0% | 24.7% | 29.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.6%
1 - 0
9.4%
2 - 1
9.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Aston Villa | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fulham | 0 | 5.9% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 11.6% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.5% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Aston Villa carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 108 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Fulham -10.4, Aston Villa -17.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Fulham
vs
Aston Villa
Elo gapAston Villa +108
Home / draw / away29% / 18% / 53%
Expected home share35%
Combined Elo3241.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3241.2
Elo home share
35%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Fulham | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1549.2 | 1692 |
| Form Elo | 1544.9 | 1670.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1522.8 | 1563.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1525.2 | 1668.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1549.5 | 1629.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -10.4 | -17.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Fulham last-5 Elo change: -10.4; Aston Villa last-5 Elo change: -17.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fulham | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 47% |
| Attack | 27% | 82% |
| Defense | 64% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
78%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fulham | Aston Villa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 56% | 24% | 39% | 65% | 38% | 52% |
| Draws | 13% | 24% | 18% | 12% | 31% | 21% |
| Loses | 31% | 53% | 42% | 24% | 31% | 27% |
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Aston VillaDLLDDWWWWLWWWWWWWWLWDLWLDWDLLLWDW
League goals
| Metric | Fulham | Aston Villa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 16 | 43 | 27 | 20 | 47 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 19 | 27 | 46 | 18 | 23 | 41 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fulham | Aston Villa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 79% | 73% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 36% | 39% | 42% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 15% | 18% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 9% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fulham | Aston Villa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fulham | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fulham | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 8 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 4-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 4-5 | 3-0 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fulham | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 42% | 58% |
| Att | 25% | 75% |
| Def | 73% | 27% |
| Poisson Distribution | 57% | 43% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 25% | 75% |
| Total | 44.4% | 55.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.76 @ 1xBet
Draw3.71 @ 1xBet
Away2.61 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.84 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.12 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ William Hill
No2.30 @ Betfair
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League standings
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