Manchester United vs Brentford

Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 19:00 • Old Trafford

Not Started

home	draw	away
53.8%	21.4%	22.8%

		Brentford
Manchester United	0	3.8%	4.7%	2.9%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
1	7.7%	9.6%	5.9%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%
2	7.8%	9.7%	6.0%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%
3	5.3%	6.6%	4.1%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%
4	2.7%	3.3%	2.1%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%
5	1.1%	1.4%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Home edge

Manchester United carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 59 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Manchester United +1.5, Brentford -12.2.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone

Manchester United Elo 1624.6 · +1.5

Brentford Elo 1601.1 · -12.2

Elo gapManchester United +59

Home / draw / away44% / 23% / 33%

Expected home share58%

Combined Elo3225.7

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Home edge

Confidence band Medium confidence

Upset risk Medium

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3225.7

Elo home share 58%

Match tone Good Watch

Metric	Manchester United	Brentford
Overall Elo	1624.6	1601.1
Form Elo	1638.8	1602.2
Home / Away Elo	1551.6	1559.8
Attack Elo	1653	1593.3
Defense Elo	1560.3	1600.5
Last 5 Elo change	+1.5	-12.2

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Manchester United last-5 Elo change: +1.5; Brentford last-5 Elo change: -12.2.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Manchester United	Brentford
Played	5	5
Form	47%	33%
Attack	80%	40%
Defense	30%	60%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	8 \| 1.6	4 \| 0.8
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	7 \| 1.4	4 \| 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

86%

FT probability

2.5+

60%

FT probability

3.5+

43%

FT probability

BTTS

73%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

1-3

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Manchester United			Brentford
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	16	17	33	17	16	33
Wins	63%	35%	48%	41%	38%	39%
Draws	19%	41%	30%	41%	13%	27%
Loses	19%	24%	21%	18%	50%	33%

Manchester UnitedLDWLWLWWWDDLWDWDLWDDDWWWWDWWLWDLW

BrentfordLWLDLWLWWLWLWLLDWWDWWLLWWDLWDDDDD

League goals

Metric	Manchester United			Brentford
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	31	27	58	28	20	48
GF avg	1.9	1.6	1.8	1.6	1.3	1.5
GA total	19	26	45	19	25	44
GA avg	1.2	1.5	1.4	1.1	1.6	1.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Manchester United		Brentford
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	91%	82%	67%	73%
1.5	55%	42%	42%	52%
2.5	21%	9%	27%	9%
3.5	9%	3%	9%	0%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Manchester United			Brentford
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	4	2	6	4	5	9
Failed to score	2	1	3	5	6	11

Penalties

Metric	Manchester United	Brentford
Scored (total \| %)	4 \| 100.00%	7 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	4	7

Streaks

Metric	Manchester United	Brentford
Wins	4	2
Draws	3	1
Losses	1	2

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	4-2	1-4	4-1	2-4
Biggest losses	1-2	3-0	0-2	3-1
Goals For	4	4	4	4
Goals Against	4	3	2	3

Model comparison

Metric	Manchester United	Brentford
Form	58%	42%
Att	67%	33%
Def	36%	64%
Poisson Distribution	63%	37%
H2h	50%	50%
Goals	47%	53%
Total	53.5%	46.5%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.98 @ 1xBet

Draw3.95 @ Dafabet

Away3.95 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.65 @ 1xBet

Under 2.52.45 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.57 @ William Hill

No2.50 @ 10Bet

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Manchester United vs Brentford

Metric	Manchester United	Brentford
Scored (total \| %)	4 \| 100.00%	7 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	4	7

Manchester United vs Brentford