Fri, May 1 2026 • 19:00 •
Elland Road
Expected Goals
2.50 (league 1.50)
1.05 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 64.8% | 17.0% | 13.9% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.4%
2 - 0
9.0%
3 - 1
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Burnley | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Leeds | 0 | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.0% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.5% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 4.7% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Leeds carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 183 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Leeds +24.2, Burnley -27.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Leeds
vs
Burnley
Elo gapLeeds +183
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share74%
Combined Elo3025.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3025.8
Elo home share
74%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Leeds | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1587 | 1438.8 |
| Form Elo | 1597.4 | 1420.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1541.7 | 1477.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1606.9 | 1506.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1592.6 | 1445.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +24.2 | -27.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Leeds last-5 Elo change: +24.2; Burnley last-5 Elo change: -27.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Leeds | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 7% |
| Attack | 70% | 20% |
| Defense | 70% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Leeds | Burnley | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 17 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| Wins | 41% | 12% | 26% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Draws | 29% | 47% | 38% | 29% | 18% | 24% |
| Loses | 29% | 41% | 35% | 59% | 71% | 65% |
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League goals
| Metric | Leeds | Burnley | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 19 | 44 | 15 | 19 | 34 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 20 | 31 | 51 | 26 | 42 | 68 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Leeds | Burnley | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 68% | 79% | 62% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 38% | 29% | 68% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 21% | 9% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 9% | 0% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Leeds | Burnley | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Leeds | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Leeds | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 7 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-3 | 2-0 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 5-0 | 1-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Leeds | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 90% | 10% |
| Att | 78% | 22% |
| Def | 77% | 23% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 66.2% | 33.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.47 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.90 @ Dafabet
Away7.90 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.75 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.25 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.91 @ Bet365
No1.91 @ William Hill
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League standings
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