Sun, May 3 2026 • 14:30 •
Old Trafford
Expected Goals
1.90 (league 1.50)
1.43 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 47.3% | 22.3% | 28.8% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.7%
2 - 1
9.2%
1 - 2
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Liverpool | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Manchester United | 0 | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.4% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Manchester United +19.6, Liverpool +10.3.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Manchester United
vs
Liverpool
Elo gapManchester United +16
Home / draw / away37% / 28% / 35%
Expected home share52%
Combined Elo3284.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3284.9
Elo home share
52%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Manchester United | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1633.1 | 1651.8 |
| Form Elo | 1649.1 | 1658.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1558.1 | 1536.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1656 | 1731 |
| Defense Elo | 1562.6 | 1622.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +19.6 | +10.3 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Manchester United last-5 Elo change: +19.6; Liverpool last-5 Elo change: +10.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Manchester United | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 67% |
| Attack | 75% | 75% |
| Defense | 50% | 58% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
88%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
78%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Manchester United | Liverpool | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 17 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| Wins | 65% | 35% | 50% | 59% | 41% | 50% |
| Draws | 18% | 41% | 29% | 24% | 18% | 21% |
| Loses | 18% | 24% | 21% | 18% | 41% | 29% |
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League goals
| Metric | Manchester United | Liverpool | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 33 | 27 | 60 | 32 | 25 | 57 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 20 | 26 | 46 | 18 | 26 | 44 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Manchester United | Liverpool | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 91% | 82% | 88% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 56% | 41% | 50% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 9% | 18% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 3% | 9% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Manchester United | Liverpool | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Manchester United | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Manchester United | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-2 | 1-4 | 5-2 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Manchester United | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 35% | 65% |
| Total | 46.2% | 53.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.47 @ 1xBet
Draw3.90 @ Betfair
Away2.84 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.52 @ Betano
Under 2.52.70 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.44 @ Bet365
No2.88 @ Betfair
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League standings
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