Sun, Sep 21 2025 • 01:07 • Estadio AKRON
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.97 (league 1.54) 3.47 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
6.5% 10.0% 69.6%
best score tips
0 - 3
8.2%
1 - 3
8.0%
0 - 4
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
Toluca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Guadalajara Chivas 0 1.2% 4.1% 7.1% 8.2% 7.1% 4.9%
1 1.1% 4.0% 6.9% 8.0% 6.9% 4.8%
2 0.6% 1.9% 3.3% 3.9% 3.4% 2.3%
3 0.2% 0.6% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8%
4 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGuadalajara ChivasToluca
Played55
Form33%67%
Attack58%75%
Defense33%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.49 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

67%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Guadalajara Chivas Toluca
HATHAT
Played448448
Wins25%25%25%50%75%63%
Draws25%25%25%25%0%13%
Loses50%50%50%25%25%25%

Form: Guadalajara Chivas: LWLLDLWD • Toluca: WWLWDLWW

League goals

Metric Guadalajara Chivas Toluca
HATHAT
GF total651110919
GF avg1.51.31.42.52.32.4
GA total76137411
GA avg1.81.51.61.81.01.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGuadalajara ChivasToluca
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.563%88%88%88%
1.538%50%75%25%
2.525%25%63%13%
3.513%0%13%13%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGuadalajara ChivasToluca
HATHAT
Clean sheets101011
Failed to score123011

Penalties

MetricGuadalajara ChivasToluca
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricGuadalajara ChivasToluca
Wins12
Draws11
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-31-23-12-4
Biggest losses1-21-03-41-0
Goals For4334
Goals Against3342

Model comparison

MetricGuadalajara ChivasToluca
Form33%67%
Att44%56%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution24%76%
H2h62%38%
Goals56%44%
Total42.0%58.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Toluca

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.91 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.55 @ 188Bet
Away2.51 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.71 @ 188Bet
No2.27 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.90 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.00 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Guadalajara Chivas = 0.97 (league 1.54), Toluca = 3.47 (league 1.19)

Toluca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Guadalajara Chivas 0 1.2% 4.1% 7.1% 8.2% 7.1% 4.9%
1 1.1% 4.0% 6.9% 8.0% 6.9% 4.8%
2 0.6% 1.9% 3.3% 3.9% 3.4% 2.3%
3 0.2% 0.6% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8%
4 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 6.5% · Draw 10.0% · Away win 69.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1