Liga MX — Mexico
Thu, Sep 25 2025 • 02:00 • Estadio Nemesio Díez
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.91 (league 1.57) 2.80 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
24.4% 17.5% 50.3%
best score tips
1 - 2
6.7%
2 - 2
6.4%
1 - 3
6.3%
Score & goals probability table
Monterrey
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca 0 0.9% 2.5% 3.5% 3.3% 2.3% 1.3%
1 1.7% 4.8% 6.7% 6.3% 4.4% 2.5%
2 1.6% 4.6% 6.4% 6.0% 4.2% 2.4%
3 1.0% 2.9% 4.1% 3.8% 2.7% 1.5%
4 0.5% 1.4% 2.0% 1.8% 1.3% 0.7%
5 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTolucaMonterrey
Played55
Form67%87%
Attack56%72%
Defense78%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 213 | 2.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.86 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

72%
FT probability

3.5+

51%
FT probability

BTTS

81%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Toluca Monterrey
HATHAT
Played459459
Wins50%80%67%75%80%78%
Draws25%0%11%25%0%11%
Loses25%20%22%0%20%11%

Form: Toluca: WWLWDLWWW • Monterrey: LWWWWWWWD

League goals

Metric Toluca Monterrey
HATHAT
GF total10122211920
GF avg2.52.42.42.81.82.2
GA total74115611
GA avg1.80.81.21.31.21.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTolucaMonterrey
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.589%78%89%67%
1.578%22%67%44%
2.567%11%56%11%
3.511%11%11%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTolucaMonterrey
HATHAT
Clean sheets022123
Failed to score011011

Penalties

MetricTolucaMonterrey
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total03

Streaks

MetricTolucaMonterrey
Wins27
Draws10
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-33-02-4
Biggest losses3-41-0—3-0
Goals For3434
Goals Against4223

Model comparison

MetricTolucaMonterrey
Form43%57%
Att43%57%
Def60%40%
Poisson Distribution45%55%
H2h62%38%
Goals54%46%
Total51.2%48.8%

Advice: Double chance : Toluca or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.98 @ 188Bet
Draw4.41 @ 1xBet
Away5.00 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.60 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.44 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ Bet365
No2.42 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Toluca = 1.91 (league 1.57), Monterrey = 2.80 (league 1.16)

Monterrey
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca 0 0.9% 2.5% 3.5% 3.3% 2.3% 1.3%
1 1.7% 4.8% 6.7% 6.3% 4.4% 2.5%
2 1.6% 4.6% 6.4% 6.0% 4.2% 2.4%
3 1.0% 2.9% 4.1% 3.8% 2.7% 1.5%
4 0.5% 1.4% 2.0% 1.8% 1.3% 0.7%
5 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 24.4% · Draw 17.5% · Away win 50.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1