Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 01:00 • Estadio Nemesio Díez
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.90 (league 1.54) 1.21 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
64.7% 14.9% 12.9%
best score tips
2 - 1
8.3%
3 - 1
8.1%
2 - 0
6.9%
Score & goals probability table
Mazatlán
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca 0 1.6% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 4.8% 5.7% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
2 6.9% 8.3% 5.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
3 6.7% 8.1% 4.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
4 4.9% 5.9% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
5 2.8% 3.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTolucaMazatlán
Played55
Form80%20%
Attack100%46%
Defense62%23%
Goals For (tot | avg)15 | 36 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 110 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

71%
FT probability

3.5+

51%
FT probability

BTTS

79%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Toluca Mazatlán
HATHAT
Played55105510
Wins60%80%70%20%0%10%
Draws20%0%10%60%40%50%
Loses20%20%20%20%60%40%

Form: Toluca: WWLWDLWWWW • Mazatlán: DWLDLDLLDD

League goals

Metric Toluca Mazatlán
HATHAT
GF total1612288412
GF avg3.22.42.81.60.81.2
GA total941310717
GA avg1.80.81.32.01.41.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTolucaMazatlán
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.590%80%70%90%
1.580%30%50%50%
2.570%10%0%20%
3.520%10%0%10%
4.510%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTolucaMazatlán
HATHAT
Clean sheets022011
Failed to score011033

Penalties

MetricTolucaMazatlán
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricTolucaMazatlán
Wins21
Draws11
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-20-32-1
Biggest losses3-41-01-43-2
Goals For6422
Goals Against4243

Model comparison

MetricTolucaMazatlán
Form80%20%
Att71%29%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution72%28%
H2h60%40%
Goals69%31%
Total69.8%30.2%

Advice: Double chance : Toluca or draw

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.25 @ 188Bet
Draw7.52 @ Pinnacle
Away13.00 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.36 @ Betano
Under 2.53.40 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.82 @ Pinnacle
No2.05 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Toluca = 2.90 (league 1.54), Mazatlán = 1.21 (league 1.19)

Mazatlán
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca 0 1.6% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 4.8% 5.7% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
2 6.9% 8.3% 5.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
3 6.7% 8.1% 4.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
4 4.9% 5.9% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
5 2.8% 3.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 64.7% · Draw 14.9% · Away win 12.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1