Liga MX — Mexico
Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 01:00 • Estadio León
Match Finished
2 - 4
Expected Goals
0.67 (league 1.54) 2.48 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
8.1% 15.0% 72.8%
best score tips
0 - 2
13.1%
0 - 3
10.8%
0 - 1
10.6%
Score & goals probability table
Toluca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Leon 0 4.3% 10.6% 13.1% 10.8% 6.7% 3.3%
1 2.9% 7.2% 8.9% 7.3% 4.5% 2.2%
2 1.0% 2.4% 3.0% 2.5% 1.5% 0.8%
3 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLeonToluca
Played55
Form33%100%
Attack36%100%
Defense36%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 118 | 3.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

88%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Leon Toluca
HATHAT
Played65116511
Wins33%20%27%67%80%73%
Draws33%20%27%17%0%9%
Loses33%60%45%17%20%18%

Form: Leon: LWLLWDWDLDL • Toluca: WWLWDLWWWWW

League goals

Metric Leon Toluca
HATHAT
GF total8210191231
GF avg1.30.40.93.22.42.8
GA total7111810414
GA avg1.22.21.61.70.81.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLeonToluca
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.564%64%91%82%
1.518%45%82%27%
2.59%27%73%9%
3.50%18%18%9%
4.50%9%9%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLeonToluca
HATHAT
Clean sheets224022
Failed to score134011

Penalties

MetricLeonToluca
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total31

Streaks

MetricLeonToluca
Wins12
Draws11
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-16-20-3
Biggest losses1-35-03-41-0
Goals For3164
Goals Against3542

Model comparison

MetricLeonToluca
Form25%75%
Att22%78%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution23%77%
H2h50%50%
Goals44%56%
Total33.3%66.7%

Advice: Winner : Toluca

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.35 @ Betano
Draw4.22 @ Pinnacle
Away1.83 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.52 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.66 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.54 @ Unibet
No2.64 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Leon = 0.67 (league 1.54), Toluca = 2.48 (league 1.16)

Toluca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Leon 0 4.3% 10.6% 13.1% 10.8% 6.7% 3.3%
1 2.9% 7.2% 8.9% 7.3% 4.5% 2.2%
2 1.0% 2.4% 3.0% 2.5% 1.5% 0.8%
3 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 8.1% · Draw 15.0% · Away win 72.8%

vtt 1 , vtd1