Liga MX — Mexico
Mon, Oct 27 2025 • 01:00 • Estadio Nemesio Díez
Match Finished
2 - 2
Expected Goals
2.73 (league 1.57) 2.04 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
47.2% 18.0% 27.3%
best score tips
2 - 2
6.6%
2 - 1
6.4%
3 - 2
6.0%
Score & goals probability table
Pachuca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca 0 0.8% 1.7% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3%
1 2.3% 4.7% 4.8% 3.3% 1.7% 0.7%
2 3.1% 6.4% 6.6% 4.5% 2.3% 0.9%
3 2.9% 5.9% 6.0% 4.1% 2.1% 0.9%
4 2.0% 4.0% 4.1% 2.8% 1.4% 0.6%
5 1.1% 2.2% 2.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTolucaPachuca
Played55
Form87%53%
Attack100%53%
Defense67%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)17 | 3.48 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 17 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

71%
FT probability

3.5+

51%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Toluca Pachuca
HATHAT
Played77147714
Wins71%71%71%43%43%43%
Draws14%14%14%0%43%21%
Loses14%14%14%57%14%36%

Form: Toluca: WWLWDLWWWWWWWD • Pachuca: WWWWLDLLLDWWDL

League goals

Metric Toluca Pachuca
HATHAT
GF total23163971219
GF avg3.32.32.81.01.71.4
GA total106168917
GA avg1.40.91.11.11.31.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTolucaPachuca
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.586%71%71%71%
1.579%29%43%50%
2.571%7%21%0%
3.529%7%0%0%
4.57%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTolucaPachuca
HATHAT
Clean sheets134224
Failed to score022314

Penalties

MetricTolucaPachuca
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%2 | 66.67%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 33.33%
Total23

Streaks

MetricTolucaPachuca
Wins74
Draws11
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-20-33-00-3
Biggest losses3-41-00-22-0
Goals For6433
Goals Against4222

Model comparison

MetricTolucaPachuca
Form62%38%
Att68%32%
Def58%42%
Poisson Distribution56%44%
H2h93%7%
Goals68%32%
Total67.5%32.5%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Toluca or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.62 @ Betano
Draw4.65 @ Betano
Away5.13 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.50 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.72 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.58 @ 188Bet
No2.51 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Toluca = 2.73 (league 1.57), Pachuca = 2.04 (league 1.16)

Pachuca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca 0 0.8% 1.7% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3%
1 2.3% 4.7% 4.8% 3.3% 1.7% 0.7%
2 3.1% 6.4% 6.6% 4.5% 2.3% 0.9%
3 2.9% 5.9% 6.0% 4.1% 2.1% 0.9%
4 2.0% 4.0% 4.1% 2.8% 1.4% 0.6%
5 1.1% 2.2% 2.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 47.2% · Draw 18.0% · Away win 27.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1