Ekstraklasa — Poland
Sun, Sep 21 2025 • 12:45 • Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.58 (league 1.68) 1.38 (league 1.23)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
62.7% 11.7% 10.1%
best score tips
3 - 1
7.4%
4 - 1
6.6%
2 - 1
6.2%
Score & goals probability table
Lechia Gdansk
0 1 2 3 4 5
Pogon Szczecin 0 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 2.5% 3.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
2 4.5% 6.2% 4.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
3 5.4% 7.4% 5.1% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
4 4.8% 6.6% 4.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
5 3.4% 4.7% 3.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPogon SzczecinLechia Gdansk
Played55
Form40%47%
Attack56%89%
Defense22%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 18 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.411 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

75%
FT probability

3.5+

54%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Pogon Szczecin Lechia Gdansk
HATHAT
Played358448
Wins67%20%38%50%0%25%
Draws0%20%13%25%25%25%
Loses33%60%50%25%75%50%

Form: Pogon Szczecin: LWDLLWWL • Lechia Gdansk: LLDDLWLW

League goals

Metric Pogon Szczecin Lechia Gdansk
HATHAT
GF total65119514
GF avg2.01.01.42.31.31.8
GA total4101471219
GA avg1.32.01.81.83.02.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePogon SzczecinLechia Gdansk
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%88%88%75%
1.538%38%63%75%
2.513%25%25%38%
3.513%13%0%25%
4.50%13%0%13%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPogon SzczecinLechia Gdansk
HATHAT
Clean sheets101202
Failed to score112011

Penalties

MetricPogon SzczecinLechia Gdansk
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricPogon SzczecinLechia Gdansk
Wins21
Draws12
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-11-22-0—
Biggest losses0-35-13-46-2
Goals For4232
Goals Against3546

Model comparison

MetricPogon SzczecinLechia Gdansk
Form46%54%
Att38%62%
Def61%39%
Poisson Distribution72%28%
H2h85%15%
Goals69%31%
Total61.8%38.2%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Pogon Szczecin or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.99 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.95 @ Unibet
Away3.80 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.60 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.42 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.58 @ Unibet
No2.52 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Pogon Szczecin = 3.58 (league 1.68), Lechia Gdansk = 1.38 (league 1.23)

Lechia Gdansk
0 1 2 3 4 5
Pogon Szczecin 0 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 2.5% 3.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
2 4.5% 6.2% 4.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
3 5.4% 7.4% 5.1% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
4 4.8% 6.6% 4.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
5 3.4% 4.7% 3.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 62.7% · Draw 11.7% · Away win 10.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1