Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 12:45 • Stadion Poznan
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.42 (league 1.69) 1.46 (league 1.23)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
10.3% 26.1% 63.1%
best score tips
0 - 1
22.4%
0 - 2
16.3%
0 - 0
15.3%
Score & goals probability table
Jagiellonia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lech Poznan 0 15.3% 22.4% 16.3% 8.0% 2.9% 0.8%
1 6.4% 9.3% 6.8% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4%
2 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
3 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLech PoznanJagiellonia
Played55
Form53%73%
Attack62%46%
Defense54%85%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.66 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.22 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

82%
FT probability

2.5+

58%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lech Poznan Jagiellonia
HATHAT
Played538448
Wins40%67%50%75%50%63%
Draws20%33%25%0%50%25%
Loses40%0%25%25%0%13%

Form: Lech Poznan: LWWDWLWD • Jagiellonia: LWWWWDWD

League goals

Metric Lech Poznan Jagiellonia
HATHAT
GF total781510414
GF avg1.42.71.92.51.01.8
GA total95148210
GA avg1.81.71.82.00.51.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLech PoznanJagiellonia
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%88%75%63%
1.563%50%50%38%
2.513%25%25%13%
3.513%13%13%13%
4.50%0%13%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLech PoznanJagiellonia
HATHAT
Clean sheets011123
Failed to score000112

Penalties

MetricLech PoznanJagiellonia
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricLech PoznanJagiellonia
Wins24
Draws11
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-25-21-2
Biggest losses1-40-4
Goals For2452
Goals Against4341

Model comparison

MetricLech PoznanJagiellonia
Form42%58%
Att57%43%
Def25%75%
Poisson Distribution22%78%
H2h71%29%
Goals68%32%
Total47.5%52.5%

Advice: Double chance : Lech Poznan or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.02 @ 188Bet
Draw4.00 @ Bet365
Away3.70 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.62 @ Betano
Under 2.52.41 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.55 @ Pinnacle
No2.52 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Lech Poznan = 0.42 (league 1.69), Jagiellonia = 1.46 (league 1.23)

Jagiellonia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lech Poznan 0 15.3% 22.4% 16.3% 8.0% 2.9% 0.8%
1 6.4% 9.3% 6.8% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4%
2 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
3 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 10.3% · Draw 26.1% · Away win 63.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1