Ekstraklasa
— Poland
Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 17:00 •
Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach
Expected Goals
1.60 (league 1.58)
0.55 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 62.3% | 24.4% | 12.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
18.6%
2 - 0
14.8%
0 - 0
11.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Arka Gdynia | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Piast Gliwice | 0 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.6% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.8% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.9% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Piast Gliwice +5.5, Arka Gdynia -17.9.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Piast Gliwice
vs
Arka Gdynia
Elo gapPiast Gliwice +17
Home / draw / away37% / 28% / 35%
Expected home share52%
Combined Elo3054.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3054.3
Elo home share
52%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Piast Gliwice | Arka Gdynia |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1518.3 | 1536 |
| Form Elo | 1514.9 | 1528.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1479.2 | 1468.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1455.6 | 1527.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1551.6 | 1503.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.5 | -17.9 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Piast Gliwice last-5 Elo change: +5.5; Arka Gdynia last-5 Elo change: -17.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Piast Gliwice | Arka Gdynia |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 33% |
| Attack | 67% | 42% |
| Defense | 33% | 25% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Piast Gliwice | Arka Gdynia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 36% | 33% | 34% | 53% | 7% | 31% |
| Draws | 21% | 20% | 21% | 33% | 14% | 24% |
| Loses | 43% | 47% | 45% | 13% | 79% | 45% |
Piast GliwiceLLDDDDLWLLLDWWLWWLWWLLWLWWLLD
Arka GdyniaLDDWLLWLDLWLWLWLLWDLWDLWDLWDL
League goals
| Metric | Piast Gliwice | Arka Gdynia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 20 | 35 | 22 | 8 | 30 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 16 | 23 | 39 | 18 | 32 | 50 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Piast Gliwice | Arka Gdynia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 69% | 76% | 59% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 31% | 48% | 34% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 10% | 10% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 17% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Piast Gliwice | Arka Gdynia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Piast Gliwice | Arka Gdynia |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Piast Gliwice | Arka Gdynia |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-2 | 1-3 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-0 | 1-4 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Piast Gliwice | Arka Gdynia |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 58% | 42% |
| Att | 62% | 38% |
| Def | 53% | 47% |
| Poisson Distribution | 73% | 27% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 61.0% | 39.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.92 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.50 @ Betfair
Away4.33 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.06 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.83 @ SBO
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.90 @ Betfair
No1.95 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
Loading standings…