Fri, May 1 2026 • 18:30 •
Stadion Wojska Polskiego
Expected Goals
1.13 (league 1.59)
0.74 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 44.7% | 31.2% | 23.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
17.4%
0 - 0
15.4%
1 - 1
12.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Widzew Łódź | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Legia Warszawa | 0 | 15.4% | 11.4% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.4% | 12.9% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.9% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 68 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Legia Warszawa +12.8, Widzew Łódź +15.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Legia Warszawa
vs
Widzew Łódź
Elo gapLegia Warszawa +68
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo3110.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3110.8
Elo home share
60%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Legia Warszawa | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1572 | 1538.8 |
| Form Elo | 1587.4 | 1555.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1536.1 | 1470.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1561.7 | 1484.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1557.6 | 1578.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.8 | +15.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Legia Warszawa last-5 Elo change: +12.8; Widzew Łódź last-5 Elo change: +15.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Legia Warszawa | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 53% |
| Attack | 36% | 36% |
| Defense | 57% | 79% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Legia Warszawa | Widzew Łódź | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 40% | 13% | 27% | 47% | 20% | 33% |
| Draws | 40% | 47% | 43% | 27% | 13% | 20% |
| Loses | 20% | 40% | 30% | 27% | 67% | 47% |
Legia WarszawaWDWLLWDDWLLDDLDDLLLDDWDWDDWDWL
Widzew ŁódźWLWDLLLWLLWWLDLLWLLLWDLWDDDWLW
League goals
| Metric | Legia Warszawa | Widzew Łódź | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 16 | 34 | 19 | 17 | 36 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 12 | 24 | 36 | 14 | 23 | 37 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Legia Warszawa | Widzew Łódź | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 73% | 73% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 27% | 33% | 33% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 7% | 10% | 10% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Legia Warszawa | Widzew Łódź | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Legia Warszawa | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Legia Warszawa | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-0 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Legia Warszawa | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 60% | 40% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 64% | 36% |
| Total | 54.7% | 45.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.15 @ William Hill
Draw3.25 @ Betfair
Away3.75 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.25 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.65 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.95 @ 10Bet
No1.86 @ Unibet
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League standings
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