Tue, Sep 30 2025 • 00:00 • Estadio Jalisco
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.63 (league 1.60) 2.16 (league 1.33)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
28.6% 20.6% 47.8%
best score tips
1 - 2
8.6%
1 - 1
8.0%
2 - 2
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
Toluca W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atlas W 0 2.3% 4.9% 5.3% 3.8% 2.1% 0.9%
1 3.7% 8.0% 8.6% 6.2% 3.3% 1.4%
2 3.0% 6.5% 7.0% 5.0% 2.7% 1.2%
3 1.6% 3.5% 3.8% 2.7% 1.5% 0.6%
4 0.7% 1.4% 1.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3%
5 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAtlas WToluca W
Played55
Form80%47%
Attack55%45%
Defense68%59%
Goals For (tot | avg)12 | 2.410 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.49 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

89%
FT probability

2.5+

63%
FT probability

3.5+

45%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Atlas W Toluca W
HATHAT
Played57126612
Wins60%29%42%67%50%58%
Draws0%43%25%17%33%25%
Loses40%29%33%17%17%17%

Form: Atlas W: DLWDLDLLWWWW • Toluca W: DWWWWWDLWWLD

League goals

Metric Atlas W Toluca W
HATHAT
GF total1071791120
GF avg2.01.01.41.51.81.7
GA total811195813
GA avg1.61.61.60.81.31.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAtlas WToluca W
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%75%83%67%
1.542%50%58%17%
2.58%25%25%17%
3.58%8%0%8%
4.58%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAtlas WToluca W
HATHAT
Clean sheets123314
Failed to score224112

Penalties

MetricAtlas WToluca W
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total50

Streaks

MetricAtlas WToluca W
Wins15
Draws11
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-21-22-01-3
Biggest losses0-34-00-14-3
Goals For6233
Goals Against3434

Model comparison

MetricAtlas WToluca W
Form63%37%
Att55%45%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution45%55%
H2h62%38%
Goals56%44%
Total56.2%43.8%

Advice: Double chance : Atlas W or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.33 @ Bet365
Draw4.02 @ Pinnacle
Away1.95 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.62 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.29 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ Bet365
No2.32 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Atlas W = 1.63 (league 1.60), Toluca W = 2.16 (league 1.33)

Toluca W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atlas W 0 2.3% 4.9% 5.3% 3.8% 2.1% 0.9%
1 3.7% 8.0% 8.6% 6.2% 3.3% 1.4%
2 3.0% 6.5% 7.0% 5.0% 2.7% 1.2%
3 1.6% 3.5% 3.8% 2.7% 1.5% 0.6%
4 0.7% 1.4% 1.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3%
5 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 28.6% · Draw 20.6% · Away win 47.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1