Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 21:45 • Estadio Nemesio Díez
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.63 (league 1.60) 0.42 (league 1.33)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
79.3% 11.6% 4.0%
best score tips
2 - 0
16.4%
3 - 0
14.4%
1 - 0
12.5%
Score & goals probability table
Mazatlán W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca W 0 4.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 12.5% 5.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
2 16.4% 6.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 14.4% 6.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 9.4% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 5.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricToluca WMazatlán W
Played55
Form53%7%
Attack75%17%
Defense42%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.82 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.413 | 2.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

89%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Toluca W Mazatlán W
HATHAT
Played67137613
Wins67%43%54%0%0%0%
Draws17%43%31%14%17%15%
Loses17%14%15%86%83%85%

Form: Toluca W: DWWWWWDLWWLDD • Mazatlán W: LLLLLDLLLLDLL

League goals

Metric Toluca W Mazatlán W
HATHAT
GF total91322347
GF avg1.51.91.70.40.70.5
GA total51015251742
GA avg0.81.41.23.62.83.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineToluca WMazatlán W
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.585%69%54%100%
1.562%23%0%77%
2.523%15%0%54%
3.50%8%0%38%
4.50%0%0%23%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricToluca WMazatlán W
HATHAT
Clean sheets314000
Failed to score112426

Penalties

MetricToluca WMazatlán W
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricToluca WMazatlán W
Wins50
Draws11
Losses15

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-3
Biggest losses0-14-30-95-0
Goals For3311
Goals Against3495

Model comparison

MetricToluca WMazatlán W
Form89%11%
Att82%18%
Def65%35%
Poisson Distribution88%12%
H2h100%0%
Goals88%13%
Total82.4%17.8%

Advice: Winner : Toluca W

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.07 @ Bet365
Draw13.28 @ Pinnacle
Away26.00 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.15 @ 10Bet
Under 2.55.50 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.95 @ Betfair
No1.85 @ 10Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Toluca W = 2.63 (league 1.60), Mazatlán W = 0.42 (league 1.33)

Mazatlán W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca W 0 4.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 12.5% 5.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
2 16.4% 6.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 14.4% 6.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 9.4% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 5.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 79.3% · Draw 11.6% · Away win 4.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1