Fri, Oct 17 2025 • 23:00 • Estadio Victoria
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.79 (league 1.60) 3.11 (league 1.33)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
6.2% 11.0% 73.2%
best score tips
0 - 3
10.2%
0 - 2
9.8%
1 - 3
8.0%
Score & goals probability table
Toluca W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Necaxa W 0 2.0% 6.3% 9.8% 10.2% 7.9% 4.9%
1 1.6% 5.0% 7.7% 8.0% 6.2% 3.9%
2 0.6% 2.0% 3.1% 3.2% 2.5% 1.5%
3 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNecaxa WToluca W
Played55
Form0%40%
Attack6%75%
Defense13%56%
Goals For (tot | avg)1 | 0.212 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)14 | 2.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

88%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Necaxa W Toluca W
HATHAT
Played78157815
Wins14%13%13%71%38%53%
Draws29%0%13%14%50%33%
Loses57%88%73%14%13%13%

Form: Necaxa W: WLLDLDLLWLLLLLL • Toluca W: DWWWWWDLWWLDDWD

League goals

Metric Necaxa W Toluca W
HATHAT
GF total639151429
GF avg0.90.40.62.11.81.9
GA total16183451116
GA avg2.32.32.30.71.41.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNecaxa WToluca W
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.533%100%87%67%
1.520%47%60%20%
2.57%40%27%13%
3.50%27%7%7%
4.50%13%7%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNecaxa WToluca W
HATHAT
Clean sheets000415
Failed to score4610112

Penalties

MetricNecaxa WToluca W
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricNecaxa WToluca W
Wins15
Draws12
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-26-01-3
Biggest losses0-55-00-14-3
Goals For3263
Goals Against5534

Model comparison

MetricNecaxa WToluca W
Form0%100%
Att8%92%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution22%78%
H2h7%93%
Goals13%87%
Total16.6%83.4%

Advice: Winner : Toluca W

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home17.00 @ William Hill
Draw9.31 @ Pinnacle
Away1.12 @ William Hill

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.03 @ Pinnacle
No1.83 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.28 @ Bet365
Under 2.53.50 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Necaxa W = 0.79 (league 1.60), Toluca W = 3.11 (league 1.33)

Toluca W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Necaxa W 0 2.0% 6.3% 9.8% 10.2% 7.9% 4.9%
1 1.6% 5.0% 7.7% 8.0% 6.2% 3.9%
2 0.6% 2.0% 3.1% 3.2% 2.5% 1.5%
3 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 6.2% · Draw 11.0% · Away win 73.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1