Sun, Sep 21 2025 • 12:30 • Abe Lenstra Stadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.52 (league 1.71) 3.66 (league 1.39)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
11.2% 11.9% 60.1%
best score tips
1 - 3
7.0%
1 - 4
6.4%
1 - 2
5.7%
Score & goals probability table
NEC Nijmegen
0 1 2 3 4 5
Heerenveen 0 0.6% 2.1% 3.8% 4.6% 4.2% 3.1%
1 0.9% 3.1% 5.7% 7.0% 6.4% 4.7%
2 0.7% 2.4% 4.4% 5.3% 4.9% 3.6%
3 0.3% 1.2% 2.2% 2.7% 2.5% 1.8%
4 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricHeerenveenNEC Nijmegen
Played55
Form13%60%
Attack33%100%
Defense47%40%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 117 | 3.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.69 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

79%
FT probability

3.5+

56%
FT probability

BTTS

90%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Heerenveen NEC Nijmegen
HATHAT
Played325325
Wins0%0%0%67%50%60%
Draws67%0%40%0%0%0%
Loses33%100%60%33%50%40%

Form: Heerenveen: DLLDL • NEC Nijmegen: WWWLL

League goals

Metric Heerenveen NEC Nijmegen
HATHAT
GF total41511617
GF avg1.30.51.03.73.03.4
GA total538549
GA avg1.71.51.61.72.01.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineHeerenveenNEC Nijmegen
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%100%100%60%
1.520%60%100%40%
2.50%0%80%40%
3.50%0%40%20%
4.50%0%20%20%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricHeerenveenNEC Nijmegen
HATHAT
Clean sheets000202
Failed to score011000

Penalties

MetricHeerenveenNEC Nijmegen
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricHeerenveenNEC Nijmegen
Wins03
Draws10
Losses20

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-01-4
Biggest losses1-22-13-53-2
Goals For2154
Goals Against2253

Model comparison

MetricHeerenveenNEC Nijmegen
Form18%82%
Att23%77%
Def53%47%
Poisson Distribution29%71%
H2h50%50%
Goals38%62%
Total35.2%64.8%

Advice: Combo Winner : NEC Nijmegen and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.53 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.00 @ 188Bet
Away2.67 @ Superbet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.54 @ Superbet
Under 2.52.63 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.46 @ Unibet
No2.93 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Heerenveen = 1.52 (league 1.71), NEC Nijmegen = 3.66 (league 1.39)

NEC Nijmegen
0 1 2 3 4 5
Heerenveen 0 0.6% 2.1% 3.8% 4.6% 4.2% 3.1%
1 0.9% 3.1% 5.7% 7.0% 6.4% 4.7%
2 0.7% 2.4% 4.4% 5.3% 4.9% 3.6%
3 0.3% 1.2% 2.2% 2.7% 2.5% 1.8%
4 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 11.2% · Draw 11.9% · Away win 60.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1