Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 10:15 • Goffertstadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.12 (league 1.74) 2.09 (league 1.38)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
38.4% 20.1% 37.4%
best score tips
2 - 2
7.3%
2 - 1
7.0%
1 - 2
6.9%
Score & goals probability table
AZ Alkmaar
0 1 2 3 4 5
NEC Nijmegen 0 1.5% 3.1% 3.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.5%
1 3.1% 6.6% 6.9% 4.8% 2.5% 1.1%
2 3.3% 7.0% 7.3% 5.1% 2.7% 1.1%
3 2.3% 4.9% 5.2% 3.6% 1.9% 0.8%
4 1.2% 2.6% 2.7% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4%
5 0.5% 1.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNEC NijmegenAZ Alkmaar
Played55
Form40%60%
Attack82%59%
Defense29%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)14 | 2.810 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)12 | 2.48 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

85%
FT probability

3.5+

61%
FT probability

BTTS

82%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric NEC Nijmegen AZ Alkmaar
HATHAT
Played336336
Wins67%33%50%33%67%50%
Draws0%0%0%67%33%50%
Loses33%67%50%0%0%0%

Form: NEC Nijmegen: WWWLLL • AZ Alkmaar: WDWWDD

League goals

Metric NEC Nijmegen AZ Alkmaar
HATHAT
GF total118199514
GF avg3.72.73.23.01.72.3
GA total5712639
GA avg1.72.32.02.01.01.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNEC NijmegenAZ Alkmaar
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%67%100%83%
1.5100%50%83%50%
2.567%50%33%17%
3.533%17%17%0%
4.517%17%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNEC NijmegenAZ Alkmaar
HATHAT
Clean sheets202011
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricNEC NijmegenAZ Alkmaar
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total22

Streaks

MetricNEC NijmegenAZ Alkmaar
Wins32
Draws01
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-01-44-11-2
Biggest losses3-53-2——
Goals For5442
Goals Against5332

Model comparison

MetricNEC NijmegenAZ Alkmaar
Form40%60%
Att58%42%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h29%71%
Goals31%69%
Total41.5%58.5%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or AZ Alkmaar and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.39 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.10 @ Bet365
Away2.08 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.47 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.81 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.45 @ Unibet
No2.89 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): NEC Nijmegen = 2.12 (league 1.74), AZ Alkmaar = 2.09 (league 1.38)

AZ Alkmaar
0 1 2 3 4 5
NEC Nijmegen 0 1.5% 3.1% 3.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.5%
1 3.1% 6.6% 6.9% 4.8% 2.5% 1.1%
2 3.3% 7.0% 7.3% 5.1% 2.7% 1.1%
3 2.3% 4.9% 5.2% 3.6% 1.9% 0.8%
4 1.2% 2.6% 2.7% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4%
5 0.5% 1.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 38.4% · Draw 20.1% · Away win 37.4%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1