Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 14:30 • Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.00 (league 1.71) 4.02 (league 1.39)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
4.6% 7.5% 66.0%
best score tips
0 - 4
7.2%
1 - 4
7.2%
0 - 3
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
Ajax
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sparta Rotterdam 0 0.7% 2.7% 5.3% 7.2% 7.2% 5.8%
1 0.7% 2.6% 5.3% 7.1% 7.2% 5.8%
2 0.3% 1.3% 2.7% 3.6% 3.6% 2.9%
3 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSparta RotterdamAjax
Played55
Form40%73%
Attack29%59%
Defense29%71%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 110 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)12 | 2.45 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

73%
FT probability

3.5+

52%
FT probability

BTTS

83%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sparta Rotterdam Ajax
HATHAT
Played347437
Wins33%50%43%100%0%57%
Draws0%0%0%0%100%43%
Loses67%50%57%0%0%0%

Form: Sparta Rotterdam: LWWLWLL • Ajax: WDWDWDW

League goals

Metric Sparta Rotterdam Ajax
HATHAT
GF total3589514
GF avg1.01.31.12.31.72.0
GA total10919257
GA avg3.32.32.70.51.71.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSparta RotterdamAjax
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%71%100%71%
1.529%57%86%29%
2.514%57%14%0%
3.50%43%0%0%
4.50%29%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSparta RotterdamAjax
HATHAT
Clean sheets022202
Failed to score112000

Penalties

MetricSparta RotterdamAjax
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricSparta RotterdamAjax
Wins21
Draws01
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-33-1
Biggest losses1-56-1
Goals For2332
Goals Against5612

Model comparison

MetricSparta RotterdamAjax
Form35%65%
Att33%67%
Def29%71%
Poisson Distribution19%81%
H2h15%85%
Goals27%73%
Total26.3%73.7%

Advice: Winner : Ajax

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.60 @ Betano
Draw4.30 @ Betano
Away1.76 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.60 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.43 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.60 @ Unibet
No2.46 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Sparta Rotterdam = 1.00 (league 1.71), Ajax = 4.02 (league 1.39)

Ajax
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sparta Rotterdam 0 0.7% 2.7% 5.3% 7.2% 7.2% 5.8%
1 0.7% 2.6% 5.3% 7.1% 7.2% 5.8%
2 0.3% 1.3% 2.7% 3.6% 3.6% 2.9%
3 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 4.6% · Draw 7.5% · Away win 66.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1