Sat, Oct 18 2025 • 19:00 • Johan Cruijff Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.75 (league 1.71) 0.54 (league 1.39)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
66.1% 22.2% 10.8%
best score tips
1 - 0
17.7%
2 - 0
15.5%
0 - 0
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
AZ Alkmaar
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ajax 0 10.1% 5.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 17.7% 9.5% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 15.5% 8.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 9.1% 4.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 4.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAjaxAZ Alkmaar
Played55
Form60%53%
Attack58%53%
Defense58%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.210 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.69 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

90%
FT probability

2.5+

63%
FT probability

3.5+

45%
FT probability

BTTS

81%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Ajax AZ Alkmaar
HATHAT
Played448448
Wins100%0%50%50%50%50%
Draws0%100%50%50%25%38%
Loses0%0%0%0%25%13%

Form: Ajax: WDWDWDWD • AZ Alkmaar: WDWWDDLW

League goals

Metric Ajax AZ Alkmaar
HATHAT
GF total981711617
GF avg2.32.02.12.81.52.1
GA total28107512
GA avg0.52.01.31.81.31.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAjaxAZ Alkmaar
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%75%100%88%
1.588%38%75%50%
2.525%13%25%13%
3.50%0%13%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAjaxAZ Alkmaar
HATHAT
Clean sheets202011
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricAjaxAZ Alkmaar
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total13

Streaks

MetricAjaxAZ Alkmaar
Wins12
Draws12
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-14-11-2
Biggest losses2-1
Goals For3342
Goals Against1332

Model comparison

MetricAjaxAZ Alkmaar
Form53%47%
Att52%48%
Def53%47%
Poisson Distribution75%25%
H2h7%93%
Goals29%71%
Total44.8%55.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or AZ Alkmaar

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.08 @ 188Bet
Draw3.90 @ Bet365
Away3.44 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.52 @ Pinnacle
No2.62 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.59 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.46 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Ajax = 1.75 (league 1.71), AZ Alkmaar = 0.54 (league 1.39)

AZ Alkmaar
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ajax 0 10.1% 5.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 17.7% 9.5% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 15.5% 8.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 9.1% 4.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 4.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 66.1% · Draw 22.2% · Away win 10.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1