Sat, Nov 1 2025 • 15:30 • Johan Cruijff Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.89 (league 1.71) 0.87 (league 1.38)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
60.2% 21.8% 16.6%
best score tips
1 - 0
11.9%
2 - 0
11.3%
1 - 1
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
Heerenveen
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ajax 0 6.3% 5.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
1 11.9% 10.4% 4.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
2 11.3% 9.8% 4.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
3 7.2% 6.2% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 3.4% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAjaxHeerenveen
Played55
Form53%73%
Attack42%54%
Defense58%58%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 213 | 2.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 210 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

92%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

80%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Ajax Heerenveen
HATHAT
Played55106410
Wins80%20%50%33%25%30%
Draws0%80%40%50%25%40%
Loses20%0%10%17%50%30%

Form: Ajax: WDWDWDWDLW • Heerenveen: DLLDLWDWWD

League goals

Metric Ajax Heerenveen
HATHAT
GF total9112012618
GF avg1.82.22.02.01.51.8
GA total4101411718
GA avg0.82.01.41.81.81.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAjaxHeerenveen
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.590%80%90%100%
1.580%50%60%70%
2.530%10%30%10%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAjaxHeerenveen
HATHAT
Clean sheets202000
Failed to score101011

Penalties

MetricAjaxHeerenveen
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricAjaxHeerenveen
Wins12
Draws11
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-12-33-22-3
Biggest losses0-2—1-22-1
Goals For3333
Goals Against2332

Model comparison

MetricAjaxHeerenveen
Form42%58%
Att43%57%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution69%31%
H2h80%20%
Goals68%32%
Total58.7%41.3%

Advice: Double chance : Ajax or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.54 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.85 @ Pinnacle
Away5.60 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.55 @ Pinnacle
No2.55 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.44 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.90 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Ajax = 1.89 (league 1.71), Heerenveen = 0.87 (league 1.38)

Heerenveen
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ajax 0 6.3% 5.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
1 11.9% 10.4% 4.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
2 11.3% 9.8% 4.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
3 7.2% 6.2% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 3.4% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 60.2% · Draw 21.8% · Away win 16.6%

vtt 27 , vtd1