Sun, Nov 9 2025 • 15:45 • AFAS Stadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.09 (league 1.72) 3.74 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
16.4% 13.5% 50.9%
best score tips
2 - 3
5.6%
1 - 3
5.4%
2 - 4
5.2%
Score & goals probability table
PSV Eindhoven
0 1 2 3 4 5
AZ Alkmaar 0 0.3% 1.1% 2.1% 2.6% 2.4% 1.8%
1 0.6% 2.3% 4.3% 5.4% 5.0% 3.8%
2 0.6% 2.4% 4.5% 5.6% 5.2% 3.9%
3 0.4% 1.7% 3.1% 3.9% 3.6% 2.7%
4 0.2% 0.9% 1.6% 2.0% 1.9% 1.4%
5 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAZ AlkmaarPSV Eindhoven
Played55
Form80%100%
Attack100%100%
Defense56%33%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 216 | 3.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.86 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

6.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

85%
FT probability

3.5+

61%
FT probability

BTTS

88%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric AZ Alkmaar PSV Eindhoven
HATHAT
Played56116511
Wins60%67%64%67%100%82%
Draws40%17%27%17%0%9%
Loses0%17%9%17%0%9%

Form: AZ Alkmaar: WDWWDDLWWWW • PSV Eindhoven: WWWLWDWWWWW

League goals

Metric AZ Alkmaar PSV Eindhoven
HATHAT
GF total15924191635
GF avg3.01.52.23.23.23.2
GA total851310616
GA avg1.60.81.21.71.21.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAZ AlkmaarPSV Eindhoven
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%73%91%82%
1.573%36%91%55%
2.527%9%55%9%
3.518%0%45%0%
4.50%0%27%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAZ AlkmaarPSV Eindhoven
HATHAT
Clean sheets033022
Failed to score000101

Penalties

MetricAZ AlkmaarPSV Eindhoven
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total40

Streaks

MetricAZ AlkmaarPSV Eindhoven
Wins23
Draws21
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-10-26-10-4
Biggest losses—2-10-2—
Goals For4265
Goals Against3223

Model comparison

MetricAZ AlkmaarPSV Eindhoven
Form44%56%
Att38%62%
Def60%40%
Poisson Distribution36%64%
H2h7%93%
Goals25%75%
Total35.0%65.0%

Advice: Combo Winner : PSV Eindhoven and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.61 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.20 @ 10Bet
Away2.13 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.36 @ 10Bet
Under 2.53.25 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.39 @ Pinnacle
No3.25 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): AZ Alkmaar = 2.09 (league 1.72), PSV Eindhoven = 3.74 (league 1.37)

PSV Eindhoven
0 1 2 3 4 5
AZ Alkmaar 0 0.3% 1.1% 2.1% 2.6% 2.4% 1.8%
1 0.6% 2.3% 4.3% 5.4% 5.0% 3.8%
2 0.6% 2.4% 4.5% 5.6% 5.2% 3.9%
3 0.4% 1.7% 3.1% 3.9% 3.6% 2.7%
4 0.2% 0.9% 1.6% 2.0% 1.9% 1.4%
5 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 16.4% · Draw 13.5% · Away win 50.9%

Vtot 28 , Vtod1