Wed, Jan 21 2026 • 17:45 • AFAS Stadion
Not Started
Expected Goals
3.95 (league 1.70) 1.51 (league 1.39)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
59.3% 10.4% 9.2%
best score tips
3 - 1
6.6%
4 - 1
6.5%
5 - 1
5.1%
Score & goals probability table
Excelsior
0 1 2 3 4 5
AZ Alkmaar 0 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
1 1.7% 2.5% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
2 3.3% 5.0% 3.8% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%
3 4.4% 6.6% 5.0% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
4 4.3% 6.5% 4.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
5 3.4% 5.1% 3.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAZ AlkmaarExcelsior
Played55
Form27%47%
Attack32%27%
Defense55%55%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 210 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

74%
FT probability

3.5+

53%
FT probability

BTTS

84%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric AZ Alkmaar Excelsior
HATHAT
Played8101810818
Wins50%40%44%40%25%33%
Draws38%10%22%10%13%11%
Loses13%50%33%50%63%56%

Form: AZ Alkmaar: WDWWDDLWWWWLLLDLWL • Excelsior: LLLWLWLLWLDLWWLWLD

League goals

Metric AZ Alkmaar Excelsior
HATHAT
GF total19143310919
GF avg2.41.41.81.01.11.1
GA total151631122234
GA avg1.91.61.71.22.81.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAZ AlkmaarExcelsior
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.594%78%78%83%
1.556%50%28%61%
2.522%28%0%17%
3.511%11%0%17%
4.50%6%0%11%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAZ AlkmaarExcelsior
HATHAT
Clean sheets134303
Failed to score011224

Penalties

MetricAZ AlkmaarExcelsior
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total42

Streaks

MetricAZ AlkmaarExcelsior
Wins42
Draws21
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-10-22-11-2
Biggest losses1-53-10-25-0
Goals For4322
Goals Against5425

Model comparison

MetricAZ AlkmaarExcelsior
Form36%64%
Att54%46%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution72%28%
H2h93%7%
Goals92%8%
Total66.2%33.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : AZ Alkmaar or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.33 @ Bet365
Draw6.21 @ Pinnacle
Away9.80 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.41 @ Unibet
Under 2.53.18 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.72 @ Unibet
No2.20 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): AZ Alkmaar = 3.95 (league 1.70), Excelsior = 1.51 (league 1.39)

Excelsior
0 1 2 3 4 5
AZ Alkmaar 0 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
1 1.7% 2.5% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
2 3.3% 5.0% 3.8% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%
3 4.4% 6.6% 5.0% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
4 4.3% 6.5% 4.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
5 3.4% 5.1% 3.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 59.3% · Draw 10.4% · Away win 9.2%

vtt 12 , vtd1