Sun, Dec 14 2025 • 15:45 • AFAS Stadion
Match Postponed
Expected Goals
3.62 (league 1.72) 1.69 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
57.5% 12.8% 13.2%
best score tips
3 - 1
6.6%
4 - 1
6.0%
3 - 2
5.6%
Score & goals probability table
Excelsior
0 1 2 3 4 5
AZ Alkmaar 0 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
1 1.8% 3.0% 2.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
2 3.2% 5.5% 4.6% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4%
3 3.9% 6.6% 5.6% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4%
4 3.5% 6.0% 5.0% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4%
5 2.6% 4.3% 3.7% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAZ AlkmaarExcelsior
Played55
Form27%47%
Attack31%38%
Defense31%56%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

72%
FT probability

3.5+

51%
FT probability

BTTS

84%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric AZ Alkmaar Excelsior
HATHAT
Played78158715
Wins43%50%47%38%29%33%
Draws43%13%27%0%14%7%
Loses14%38%27%63%57%60%

Form: AZ Alkmaar: WDWWDDLWWWWLLLD • Excelsior: LLLWLWLLWLDLWWL

League goals

Metric AZ Alkmaar Excelsior
HATHAT
GF total1810286814
GF avg2.61.31.90.81.10.9
GA total1592491726
GA avg2.11.11.61.12.41.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAZ AlkmaarExcelsior
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.593%80%73%80%
1.560%47%20%60%
2.520%20%0%13%
3.513%7%0%13%
4.50%7%0%7%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAZ AlkmaarExcelsior
HATHAT
Clean sheets033303
Failed to score011224

Penalties

MetricAZ AlkmaarExcelsior
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total41

Streaks

MetricAZ AlkmaarExcelsior
Wins42
Draws21
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-10-21-01-2
Biggest losses1-53-10-25-0
Goals For4212
Goals Against5325

Model comparison

MetricAZ AlkmaarExcelsior
Form36%64%
Att45%55%
Def39%61%
Poisson Distribution67%33%
H2h93%7%
Goals92%8%
Total62.0%38.0%

Advice: Double chance : AZ Alkmaar or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.34 @ 188Bet
Draw5.95 @ Marathonbet
Away9.60 @ Marathonbet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.40 @ Betano
Under 2.53.10 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.69 @ Marathonbet
No2.30 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): AZ Alkmaar = 3.62 (league 1.72), Excelsior = 1.69 (league 1.37)

Excelsior
0 1 2 3 4 5
AZ Alkmaar 0 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
1 1.8% 3.0% 2.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
2 3.2% 5.5% 4.6% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4%
3 3.9% 6.6% 5.6% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4%
4 3.5% 6.0% 5.0% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4%
5 2.6% 4.3% 3.7% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 57.5% · Draw 12.8% · Away win 13.2%

Vtot 11 , Vtod1