Sat, Dec 20 2025 • 19:00 • Goffertstadion
Not Started
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Expected Goals
3.31 (league 1.72) 2.15 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
49.2% 15.5% 21.5%
best score tips
3 - 2
5.9%
3 - 1
5.5%
2 - 2
5.4%
Score & goals probability table
Ajax
0 1 2 3 4 5
NEC Nijmegen 0 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%
1 1.4% 3.0% 3.3% 2.3% 1.3% 0.5%
2 2.3% 5.0% 5.4% 3.9% 2.1% 0.9%
3 2.6% 5.5% 5.9% 4.3% 2.3% 1.0%
4 2.1% 4.6% 4.9% 3.5% 1.9% 0.8%
5 1.4% 3.0% 3.2% 2.3% 1.3% 0.5%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNEC NijmegenAjax
Played55
Form87%60%
Attack100%90%
Defense30%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)14 | 2.89 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.45 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

80%
FT probability

3.5+

57%
FT probability

BTTS

86%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric NEC Nijmegen Ajax
HATHAT
Played79169716
Wins71%33%50%67%29%50%
Draws14%33%25%11%57%31%
Loses14%33%25%22%14%19%

Form: NEC Nijmegen: WWWLLLWDDDLWWWWD • Ajax: WDWDWDWDLWDLLWWW

League goals

Metric NEC Nijmegen Ajax
HATHAT
GF total212041151530
GF avg3.02.22.61.72.11.9
GA total10172771320
GA avg1.41.91.70.81.91.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNEC NijmegenAjax
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.594%81%94%75%
1.588%50%69%44%
2.550%25%25%6%
3.519%6%0%0%
4.56%6%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNEC NijmegenAjax
HATHAT
Clean sheets303404
Failed to score011101

Penalties

MetricNEC NijmegenAjax
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricNEC NijmegenAjax
Wins41
Draws31
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-01-43-11-3
Biggest losses3-53-20-22-1
Goals For5433
Goals Against5323

Model comparison

MetricNEC NijmegenAjax
Form59%41%
Att61%39%
Def42%58%
Poisson Distribution59%41%
H2h29%71%
Goals50%50%
Total50.0%50.0%

Advice: Combo Double chance : NEC Nijmegen or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.32 @ 1xBet
Draw4.06 @ Pinnacle
Away2.79 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.40 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.95 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.37 @ Unibet
No3.10 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): NEC Nijmegen = 3.31 (league 1.72), Ajax = 2.15 (league 1.37)

Ajax
0 1 2 3 4 5
NEC Nijmegen 0 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%
1 1.4% 3.0% 3.3% 2.3% 1.3% 0.5%
2 2.3% 5.0% 5.4% 3.9% 2.1% 0.9%
3 2.6% 5.5% 5.9% 4.3% 2.3% 1.0%
4 2.1% 4.6% 4.9% 3.5% 1.9% 0.8%
5 1.4% 3.0% 3.2% 2.3% 1.3% 0.5%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 49.2% · Draw 15.5% · Away win 21.5%

Vtot 3 , Vtod1