Sat, Feb 14 2026 • 19:00 • Johan Cruijff Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.87 (league 1.73) 0.76 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
62.5% 21.8% 14.5%
best score tips
1 - 0
13.5%
2 - 0
12.6%
1 - 1
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
Fortuna Sittard
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ajax 0 7.3% 5.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 13.5% 10.3% 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 12.6% 9.6% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 7.9% 5.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 3.7% 2.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAjaxFortuna Sittard
Played55
Form60%33%
Attack67%53%
Defense53%40%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.49 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

86%
FT probability

2.5+

61%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Ajax Fortuna Sittard
HATHAT
Played111122111122
Wins64%27%45%45%18%32%
Draws18%64%41%27%18%23%
Loses18%9%14%27%64%45%

Form: Ajax: WDWDWDWDLWDLLWWWDWDWDD • Fortuna Sittard: DLWWLWLWLLLWDDLLWDLWLD

League goals

Metric Ajax Fortuna Sittard
HATHAT
GF total192342191433
GF avg1.72.11.91.71.31.5
GA total92029172138
GA avg0.81.81.31.51.91.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAjaxFortuna Sittard
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.595%77%86%86%
1.573%50%45%59%
2.523%5%14%18%
3.50%0%5%5%
4.50%0%0%5%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAjaxFortuna Sittard
HATHAT
Clean sheets505303
Failed to score101033

Penalties

MetricAjaxFortuna Sittard
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricAjaxFortuna Sittard
Wins32
Draws12
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-32-01-3
Biggest losses0-22-11-35-2
Goals For3343
Goals Against2335

Model comparison

MetricAjaxFortuna Sittard
Form64%36%
Att56%44%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution73%27%
H2h85%15%
Goals80%20%
Total69.0%31.0%

Advice: Double chance : Ajax or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.33 @ Betano
Draw6.09 @ Pinnacle
Away9.75 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.50 @ Betano
Under 2.52.88 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.80 @ Bet365
No2.07 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Ajax = 1.87 (league 1.73), Fortuna Sittard = 0.76 (league 1.37)

Fortuna Sittard
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ajax 0 7.3% 5.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 13.5% 10.3% 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 12.6% 9.6% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 7.9% 5.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 3.7% 2.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 62.5% · Draw 21.8% · Away win 14.5%

vtt 14 , vtd1