Tue, Feb 17 2026 • 19:00 • Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.33 (league 1.71) 2.92 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
14.5% 15.4% 62.3%
best score tips
1 - 2
8.1%
1 - 3
7.9%
0 - 2
6.1%
Score & goals probability table
NEC Nijmegen
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sparta Rotterdam 0 1.4% 4.2% 6.1% 5.9% 4.3% 2.5%
1 1.9% 5.6% 8.1% 7.9% 5.7% 3.3%
2 1.3% 3.7% 5.4% 5.2% 3.8% 2.2%
3 0.6% 1.6% 2.4% 2.3% 1.7% 1.0%
4 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSparta RotterdamNEC Nijmegen
Played55
Form87%80%
Attack65%82%
Defense71%47%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.214 | 2.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

72%
FT probability

3.5+

51%
FT probability

BTTS

79%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sparta Rotterdam NEC Nijmegen
HATHAT
Played111122111122
Wins45%55%50%64%45%55%
Draws18%9%14%18%27%23%
Loses36%36%36%18%27%23%

Form: Sparta Rotterdam: LWWLWLLDWWLLDLWLWWWWWD • NEC Nijmegen: WWWLLLWDDDLWWWWDDWWWWL

League goals

Metric Sparta Rotterdam NEC Nijmegen
HATHAT
GF total131629302757
GF avg1.21.51.32.72.52.6
GA total181836172138
GA avg1.61.61.61.51.91.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSparta RotterdamNEC Nijmegen
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.577%59%95%86%
1.536%41%86%50%
2.514%36%50%27%
3.55%14%23%5%
4.50%9%5%5%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSparta RotterdamNEC Nijmegen
HATHAT
Clean sheets459303
Failed to score325011

Penalties

MetricSparta RotterdamNEC Nijmegen
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total34

Streaks

MetricSparta RotterdamNEC Nijmegen
Wins54
Draws13
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-35-01-4
Biggest losses1-56-13-53-2
Goals For3454
Goals Against5653

Model comparison

MetricSparta RotterdamNEC Nijmegen
Form52%48%
Att44%56%
Def64%36%
Poisson Distribution32%68%
H2h38%62%
Goals42%58%
Total45.3%54.7%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or NEC Nijmegen and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.67 @ Superbet
Draw3.90 @ 188Bet
Away2.90 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.65 @ Betano
Under 2.52.50 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.52 @ 1xBet
No2.72 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sparta Rotterdam = 1.33 (league 1.71), NEC Nijmegen = 2.92 (league 1.37)

NEC Nijmegen
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sparta Rotterdam 0 1.4% 4.2% 6.1% 5.9% 4.3% 2.5%
1 1.9% 5.6% 8.1% 7.9% 5.7% 3.3%
2 1.3% 3.7% 5.4% 5.2% 3.8% 2.2%
3 0.6% 1.6% 2.4% 2.3% 1.7% 1.0%
4 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 14.5% · Draw 15.4% · Away win 62.3%

vtt 11 , vtd1