Sat, Feb 28 2026 • 15:30 • Abe Lenstra Stadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.89 (league 1.71) 1.84 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
39.1% 21.5% 37.0%
best score tips
1 - 1
8.3%
2 - 1
7.9%
1 - 2
7.7%
Score & goals probability table
Sparta Rotterdam
0 1 2 3 4 5
Heerenveen 0 2.4% 4.4% 4.0% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4%
1 4.5% 8.3% 7.7% 4.7% 2.2% 0.8%
2 4.3% 7.9% 7.3% 4.4% 2.0% 0.7%
3 2.7% 5.0% 4.6% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5%
4 1.3% 2.4% 2.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
5 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricHeerenveenSparta Rotterdam
Played55
Form47%53%
Attack56%44%
Defense25%63%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.87 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)12 | 2.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

67%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Heerenveen Sparta Rotterdam
HATHAT
Played121224121224
Wins33%33%33%42%50%46%
Draws42%17%29%25%8%17%
Loses25%50%38%33%42%38%

Form: Heerenveen: DLLDLWDWWDDLWLLWWDLDLWWL • Sparta Rotterdam: LWWLWLLDWWLLDLWLWWWWWDDL

League goals

Metric Heerenveen Sparta Rotterdam
HATHAT
GF total221840141731
GF avg1.81.51.71.21.41.3
GA total212142192140
GA avg1.81.81.81.61.81.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineHeerenveenSparta Rotterdam
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.579%92%79%63%
1.550%63%33%42%
2.533%13%13%38%
3.54%4%4%13%
4.50%4%0%8%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricHeerenveenSparta Rotterdam
HATHAT
Clean sheets022459
Failed to score235325

Penalties

MetricHeerenveenSparta Rotterdam
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total33

Streaks

MetricHeerenveenSparta Rotterdam
Wins25
Draws22
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-20-32-00-3
Biggest losses0-25-01-56-1
Goals For4334
Goals Against3556

Model comparison

MetricHeerenveenSparta Rotterdam
Form47%53%
Att56%44%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h40%60%
Goals50%50%
Total46.2%53.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Sparta Rotterdam

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.09 @ 188Bet
Draw3.89 @ Pinnacle
Away3.51 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.58 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.49 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.52 @ Pinnacle
No2.63 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Heerenveen = 1.89 (league 1.71), Sparta Rotterdam = 1.84 (league 1.37)

Sparta Rotterdam
0 1 2 3 4 5
Heerenveen 0 2.4% 4.4% 4.0% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4%
1 4.5% 8.3% 7.7% 4.7% 2.2% 0.8%
2 4.3% 7.9% 7.3% 4.4% 2.0% 0.7%
3 2.7% 5.0% 4.6% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5%
4 1.3% 2.4% 2.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
5 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 39.1% · Draw 21.5% · Away win 37.0%

vtt 11 , vtd1