Sun, Mar 15 2026 • 13:30 • AFAS Stadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.40 (league 1.73) 1.05 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
68.5% 10.9% 7.6%
best score tips
3 - 1
8.0%
3 - 0
7.7%
2 - 1
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
Heracles
0 1 2 3 4 5
AZ Alkmaar 0 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
1 4.0% 4.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
2 6.8% 7.1% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 7.7% 8.0% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
4 6.5% 6.8% 3.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
5 4.4% 4.6% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAZ AlkmaarHeracles
Played55
Form47%7%
Attack41%12%
Defense59%29%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.42 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.412 | 2.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

73%
FT probability

3.5+

52%
FT probability

BTTS

81%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric AZ Alkmaar Heracles
HATHAT
Played121426131326
Wins42%43%42%31%8%19%
Draws42%7%23%15%8%12%
Loses17%50%35%54%85%69%

Form: AZ Alkmaar: WDWWDDLWWWWLLLDLWLDWLDWWLL • Heracles: LLLLLLWLLLWWWDDLLLLLWLLLLD

League goals

Metric AZ Alkmaar Heracles
HATHAT
GF total251843211132
GF avg2.11.31.71.60.81.2
GA total212142283765
GA avg1.81.51.62.22.82.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAZ AlkmaarHeracles
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.592%81%58%92%
1.546%46%27%73%
2.519%23%15%42%
3.58%8%8%31%
4.50%4%4%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAZ AlkmaarHeracles
HATHAT
Clean sheets145202
Failed to score0225611

Penalties

MetricAZ AlkmaarHeracles
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total43

Streaks

MetricAZ AlkmaarHeracles
Wins43
Draws22
Losses36

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-10-28-21-2
Biggest losses1-53-10-74-0
Goals For4383
Goals Against5474

Model comparison

MetricAZ AlkmaarHeracles
Form88%13%
Att78%22%
Def63%37%
Poisson Distribution76%24%
H2h50%50%
Goals36%64%
Total65.2%35.0%

Advice: Winner : AZ Alkmaar

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.45 @ Superbet
Draw5.75 @ Bet365
Away8.75 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.58 @ Superbet
Under 2.52.88 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.78 @ 188Bet
No2.23 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): AZ Alkmaar = 3.40 (league 1.73), Heracles = 1.05 (league 1.37)

Heracles
0 1 2 3 4 5
AZ Alkmaar 0 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
1 4.0% 4.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
2 6.8% 7.1% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 7.7% 8.0% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
4 6.5% 6.8% 3.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
5 4.4% 4.6% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 68.5% · Draw 10.9% · Away win 7.6%

vtt 1 , vtd1